Barry - A Review of Merced and other 64 Bit Processors and Operating Systems
Paul
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infoworld.com
January 12, 1998
Special News Report
Answering the 64-bit question
By Ed Scannell and David Pendery
It is merely the roll of distant thunder now, but a variety of 64-bit computing platforms due during the next two years should rain down important technical advances that will increasingly bring 64-bit computing power to mainstream applications.
Experts say the performance leap of 64-bit servers could give companies the ability to build dramatically more-flexible server architectures for database-intensive applications and give the performance headroom necessary to launch high-volume Internet-commerce applications.
And although completion the IA-64 chip architecture from Intel and Hewlett-Packard, set for release in late 1999, is still more than a year away, IT managers need to begin making preliminary plans for moving to 64-bit servers that today only crop up in scientific applications.
With the Internet's exponential growth, many ISPs are now showcases for 64-bit Unix servers, foreshadowing issues IT managers will likely face as they cope with intranet expansion this year.
For example, Digital Equipment, which started shipping its 64-bit hardware and software platforms in 1994, has shipped more than 4,500 servers to corporate accounts, including many ISPs. Another fully 64-bit platform provider, Silicon Graphics, is seeing corporate demand for 64-bit systems in three main areas: data warehousing, IP video delivery, and large-scale Internet applications such as I-commerce, Web-site hosting, e-mail, and news group services, according to Lenny Rosenthal, director of marketing at Silicon Graphics' Internet systems division, in Mountain View, Calif.
Of these areas, Internet applications may be the most promising. AT&T WorldNet, Travelocity, and Warner Brothers are just some of the ISPs and Web-site operators using Silicon Graphics' 64-bit WebForce servers. Rosenthal estimates demand for 64-bit computing among ISPs alone will be growing 100 percent to 150 percent to become a $500 million-business in 1998.
"If you want to combine electronic-commerce transactions with massive storage of content, you'll probably need the higher processing computing," says Don Ryan, a vice president at the Meta Group, in Stamford, Conn. "If you're doing divisional or single-application commerce applications, my guess is that it's not a necessity yet."
Indeed, right now 64-bit servers and workstations are relegated to niche markets, albeit sometimes profitable niches, including the scientific, engineering, and academic markets. But during the last year or so, 64-bit Unix vendors have seen an uptick in 64-bit sales as some corporate accounts have developed an interest in data-mining and data-warehousing applications.
Steven Russell, vice president of information services at the American Society of Composers, Authors, and Publishers (ASCAP), in New York, says 64-bit processing and OS power were essential system elements when ASCAP migrated from a legacy mainframe to a client/server environment.
"When we looked for a replacement environment, we were interested in going beyond traditional memory limitations," Russell says of the ASCAP system, which processes hundreds of millions of operations annually using a Sybase database. "Working under the assumption of future expansion, we required 64-bit machines."
The capability to load huge amounts of data in memory may cause more than just faster performance. Some analysts say hosting full databases in memory will also let users construct faster, more-flexible systems.
"Instead of having ten 32-bit database servers, which adds a lot of complexity you have to manage, you can now just have four 64-bit servers with the database running strictly in memory," says Richard Buchanan, a senior analyst at the Meta Group. "The advantage is you are managing fewer servers with a design approach that reduces complexity but still gives you wicked, amazingly good performance."
This type of adaptive server architecture also allows more users to access any given server.
"Instead of having one huge database machine being hammered on by thousands of users, you can partition the database into separate physical databases and then run them all in memory," Buchanan says. "There is a growing feeling that 64-bit adoption will be driven less by high performance for traditional database and graphics applications and more by the opportunity it gives users to change their philosophies about designing infrastructures."
However, software for both the OS and specifically written applications may hold up the adoption of this more-flexible architecture.
"The problem with partitioning databases is making the changes to the other applications that were written to be unified with it," says Henry Morris, program director for data warehousing and applications at International Data Corp. (IDC), in Framingham, Mass. "I am not sure the big business apps are up to this yet. This could be a many-years process."
In the meantime, traditional PC software vendors are already preparing for the big shift to 64 bit as the arrival of the IA-64, or the Merced chip, looms.
"Once Merced comes out, 64-bit computing will become an essential part of the market," says Jean Bozman, an IDC analyst in Burlingame, Calif. "Most vendors so far have delivered 64-bit hardware and asked users to continue running 32-bit software. With Merced having a 64-bit operating system available will be a requirement."
Microsoft plans to port more than 100 million lines of code covering several different products -- including Windows NT itself, its tools, and its BackOffice applications -- to both Merced and Digital's 64-bit Alpha chip, says Ed Muth, NT group product manager at Microsoft, in Redmond, Wash. Microsoft will release a 64-bit "pre-beta version" of NT by the end of this year as well as a syntax-checking tool this month that gives application developers a heads-up notice of any code that needs attention before either Merced or NT for Merced are available.
"When hardware is available with Merced we will be able to ship at 64-bit NT," Muth says.
Novell also plans to deliver a version of NetWare for Merced in 1999, company sources say.
Additionally, Merced is enjoying the endorsement of many Unix vendors as they hedge their bets by offering their operating systems on their own processors and Merced.
Last week Digital, with Sequent Computer Systems, formally announced plans to port its 64-bit Digital Unix operating system to Merced. Company officials say they will integrate technology from Sequent's Dynix/ptx IA-32 Unix operating system, including support for Non-Uniform Memory Access.
Last month Sun Microsystems said it would adapt its Unix-based Solaris operating system to Merced. HP, Merced's co-developer, threw its support behind the chip, saying the company will continue supporting its 64-bit Unix-based PA-RISC platform but will eventually transition over its users, beginning in 1999. So far IBM has been silent about its plans for adapting AIX 4.3, its first 64-bit Unix-based OS delivered last fall, to Merced.
"Unix players need to make a move to offer 64 bits to this large Intel market," says Rich Partridge, an analyst at D.H. Brown and Associates, in Port Chester, N.Y. "There is an urgency from the Unix players to defend their turf and to recognize that Intel will become a volume player in the 64-bit market. They want a piece of that pie."
With a handful of competitors, most notably Digital, holding a few years' lead over Microsoft in this arena, some observers believe it is the Unix vendors' game to lose.
"There is still a lot of dissatisfaction in larger shops with the inability to scale NT," says one East Coast analyst who asked not to be named. "I think NT will be useful for a certain percentage of enterprise applications, but I see Unix hanging in and even gaining share."
But Unix developers will have to do a much better job of marketing their platforms and clearly spelling out what the benefits of 64-bit computing are to large shops.
In the meantime, most IT directors are still concerned with the thorny problems of moving large numbers of users on 16-bit desktop applications to 32-bit platforms and/or stabilizing existing 32-bit server applications.
But although Microsoft officials generally believe that Merced will be the platform that drives 64-bit computing into mainstream sometime in 1999, they are not taking the opportunity lightly.
"We do not see [64-bit systems] as a niche product only," Microsoft's Muth says. "Initially [a 64-bit version of NT] will be sold on high-end processors, but over the long run we will move from 32 bit to 64 bit just like when we moved from 16 bit to 32 bit."
Bob Trott, Andy Santoni, and Lynda Radosevich contributed to this article.
The road to a full 64-bit world
Although 64-bit hardware has been available for some time, the OS support lags slightly.
Company Processor Operating system Digital Equipment Alpha Digital Unix, 64 bit Silicon Graphics MIPS Irix, 64 bit IBM Power PC AIX 4.3 either 32 or 64 bit OS/400 and OS/390 64 bit Hewlett-Packard PA-8000 HP-UX 11, 64 bit Sun Microsystems UltraSparc Solaris (fully 64 bit in 1999) Sequent Intel Dynix/ptx, 32 bit, working with Digital combined 64-bit Unix NCR Intel Unix MP-RAS, 32 bit, porting to Solaris Compaq/Tandem Intel NonStop-UX C41, (64-bit upgrade due this year) Intel IA-64 (OS support due in 1999) Siemens Pyramid MIPS Reliant Unix, 32 bit SCO Intel UnixWare (partially 64 bit) Novell Intel NetWare 5 (due midyear; 32 bit and 64 bit scheduled for release of IA-64) Microsoft Intel Intel, Alpha Windows NT, 32 bit (64 bit due end of 1999 with release of IA-64)
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