Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 143.23

-2.9%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4432)	1/14/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: John Chalker	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Jay, I feel that you are making a very large bet with the following statement, <<create a capital crunch at chip OEM's creating an air pocket for equipment orders in the second half of 1998. Finally, that current equipment valuations at 2x revenue + or minus don't reflect this deterioration in fundamentals in the second half of 98.>> Given how quickly this industry changes and how quickly the market sentiment changes on these stocks, you have taken a position way out on a limb to forecast a continued major bear market in these stocks. I think that any one of several positive factors could enter the equation and wreak havoc on this bearish tune. If I had heard this when KLAC was at $70 for example, I would've agreed that there was ample room to fall, but at $34 you have already shredded the balloon very badly. One thing we do know, these stocks are much too volatile to remain in a narrow trading range for the next six months. My regards, Chalks

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