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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 266.38

-0.8%

Nov 20 3:59 PM EST

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To: Phillip C. Lee who wrote (7702)	1/15/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: Marc Newman	Read Replies (2) of 213173

Phil, it's good to get your thoughts. I think you're right about the long-term stock price but watch out for next quarter as I don't think we have enough info yet to be sure Apple will be in the black. There could be a few more small charges remaining as costs continue to be cut and perhaps non-G3 inventory must be written off. On the other hand, your estimates for the final two quarters might be low. Run your figures based on $3.5 B in revenue for the second half of the year ($6.5 B minus $1.6 B + $1.4 B) and see what you get, at the 22.4% margin with $300 million a quarter in expenses. Then add the interest income. I wrote most of another post an hour ago but we had a two-second power failure in Berkeley and it was lost. Basically I said that the News.com article is a fine one, with good detail. I do find it surprising that the analysts are now suggesting that G3 sales will slow down. NO WAY. The whole product line is moving to the G3 fast. After next quarter it will probably be 100% G3, at 600,000-700,000 units per. Even the rumored NC uses a G3 chip. These are the same guys who first said nobody is buying non-G3 because they all want G3 systems, and now they are saying people don't want G3s? Phil and Eric and others are right--these machines are just hitting the international markets in force and from my private e-mail from overseas investors and Mac fans, are eagerly awaited. Tim Bajarin is the only one quoted who has been calling things right for the last year. Marc

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