Tom, interesting notes you put up: -more
<< but there are many more nasty surprises in store for banks in Asia. Of that I am certain >>
Me too, absolutely
<< sell all banks with Asian exposure (particularly European ones which have been the marginal lenders to Asia in the last few years) >>
In principle I agree, but I would consider the French an British ones to be more endangered than the German or Swiss ones, generally, because of historic ties (only guessing, though).
In any case, on the German newschanned N-tv (kind of Germany's version of CNN, but more low-key) one analyst from a respected German neswletter came forward saying that a source he "considered to be reliable" told him that all German banks togther have an exposure of about 100bn DEM in SEA. Most of these are rather good loans though, guaranteed by export-risk insurance for long-term projects, etc. Let me see if I find some nos. in the '96 Annual Report of Deutsche Bank. I'll be back with that.
If you absolutely had to invest in SEA now, where would you? Who is the one-eyed king among the blinds there right now, IYO? Thanks.
I'll be back,
Thomas |
