Avid Chat discussion with Chris Carolan of Calendar Research
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 7:57PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Welcome to tonight's special guest chat with Chris Carolan of Calendar Research. Please refrain from any other discussion until after the chat.
dgoto . . Wed, Sep 13, 7:58PM ET (-0500 GMT)
gee Humble1 must be lurking right now and biting his lip not to ask a question LOL!
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 7:58PM ET (-0500 GMT)
So guess when the sixth new moon was.
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 7:59PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Since your call for a bull market top is still some 15 months away, do you see a broad based move at any time or just a continuation of the index bull market where high cap stocks drive the indexes to the exclusion of most other issues?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 7:59PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, you have made some truly remarkable timing calls and made many of them months or even years in advance. I was particulary impressed with your prediction of the April panic. Can you briefly describe the three timing calls that you are the proudest of?
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 7:59PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris (a.k.a. "calendar"), welcome to Avid, and thank you for taking the time this evening. Let's start with a question posted earlier by "twocents" who wonders whether you think "the lows for 2000 are in for dow and/or spx".
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:00PM ET (-0500 GMT)
2cs - Yes, I think the spring lows hold in the Dow & S&P;, not so sure about the NASDAQ though. Chart follows showing the cyclic importance of the April selloff.
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:00PM ET (-0500 GMT)
WOW great charts
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:00PM ET (-0500 GMT)
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:02PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Does the Gold market conform to your work?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:02PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, When you pin down a date for a top, panic, or low, etc, do these dates apply to all markets or are they market and region specific?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:03PM ET (-0500 GMT)
pistachio - I think the rally broadens out (after any autumn events are over). Look at how the value line geo index has broken out. Small stocks should do okay later in 4th qtr.
notop . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:03PM ET (-0500 GMT)
twocents . . Wed, Sep 13, 6:24PM ET (-0500 GMT) unfortunately i have a "must" dinner tonight and will miss chris carolan. IMHO he and glenn neely were the two most exciting technicians of the 1990's. both had an enormous influence on my development. using cc's methods from his book i was able to nail the march/april lows and learn at another site that he concurred. wherever humble1 is i hope he will be here tonight, as we both agree on cc's seminal importance in time research.....if anyone can or will, please ask him if he still thinks the lows for 2000 are in for dow and/or spx...thanks to avid for this mostly great series.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:04PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excal- 3 best calls? The 1989 mini-crash (cause it was the first) & calling for the end of the soviet union within a 1 month window. I'll leave slot #3 open for December 2001.
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Assuming for the moment that your call for a December 2001 top is wrong, when would (or would have) the top come in?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
calendar, on the 3 best calls can you tell us how far in advance you made them?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:06PM ET (-0500 GMT)
harmlesbob - Yes, gold has been one of the better markets for the Spiral Calendar. The March '93 low was the 1st big tun that the newsletter nailed. Generally, my work does best in emotional markets. I'm not of much use in sideways trading ranges.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:07PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Excal- The best dates seem useful worldwide, but it's also a question of which markets are primed or vulnerable to emotion. Example. Last year's "autumn panic" was in gold, as there were too many shorts. This year's version may be in China, based on the chart above.
strudle_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:08PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Does you work apply to specific stock selection?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:08PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, what do you see for this October?
txstocks1 . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:09PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Allan Newman, market technician, is calling for the lows to hit between now and the end of year. Do you concur with any of his forecasts? His words, we believe our year 2000 downside targets can be achieved before year end; 9000 for the Dow Industrials, 1250 for the SPX and 2800-2900 for the Nasdaq Composite.
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:09PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris -- can you describe the basics of the "Spiral Calendar", i.e. on what is it based, and why does it work.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:09PM ET (-0500 GMT)
pistachio - If I'm wrong about Dec. 2001, then I don't have a clue! There's no other dates that are that pretty. (all The logic of the 2001 top is contained in the charts I posted before the chat started.)
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
We have the autumn equinox sept. 22 Does the first day of autumn enter into your research work?
perspect . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Hi Chris: I see from your charts that you are heavily into the 'fundamentals' of the calendar (earth's orbit around the sun and eclipes). Do you attach any relevance to the human (essentially arbitrary) factors in the calendar? For example that a week is arbitrarily 7 days, a month is arbitrarily 28 to 31, and so on? And are there any other calendar 'fundamentals' beyond the two I have just mentioned that you believe have relevance to markets? Many thanks.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:11PM ET (-0500 GMT)
strudle - sometimes, but only for those stocks that are emotionally in gear with the market. Like csco right now for instance. But in most cases not.
heartbeat . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:12PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, given your analysis for the current 'False Spring' of rising prices and the most recent Sept 8/9, 2000 turning point for Gold, do you think that Gold may begin its ascent now and make a higher low at next year's August turning point from which its ascent may accelerate?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:13PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excal - This October has the potential to be scary, but it looks like the action will be offshore. The Shanghai chart above looks more like 1929 and 1987 than any domestic charts. I think the US market seems very solid here and any October nastiness will be shortlived and a buying opportunity. I am bearish for the next few weeks, though I'm bullish for the next few days.
dgoto . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:14PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Calendar please explain what is the biggest factors influencing BAD calls.
strudle_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:14PM ET (-0500 GMT)
What do you mean "emotionally in gear"? Would you say Csco is a buy or sell at this point?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:14PM ET (-0500 GMT)
thanks, that timing fits my own work...hope we are both right as I am long.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:15PM ET (-0500 GMT)
txstock1 - I'm not as bearish as Alan. And I almost never forecast price targets. I am more bearish on the NASDAQ and least bearish on the XVG (value line geo) with the Dow and S&P; in between.
dgoto . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:16PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Calendar does the general increase of "day trading" or short term swing trading and volume in general cause changes in your dates?
perspect . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:17PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris: Do Fibonacci relationships/ratios in either price or time enter into your work at all?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:18PM ET (-0500 GMT)
dgoto, he has explained the dates are based on the calendar and the market affected are based on emotionality extremes.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:18PM ET (-0500 GMT)
avid - The spiral calendar originated with 2 observations. One, that the crashes of 1929 and 1987 occurred on the same lunar date. And two, that the distance separating those events was the square root of a fibonacci number when measured in lunar months. One of tonights charts shows how that same 58 year length occurred this April as a cycle connecting April 1942 and then back to Grant's Panic of 1884. There more to it than I can elucidate here, but that's a start.
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:19PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Re the "Long Wave," it looks like you are expecting something resembling 1929-1932 by 2004. Is that a correct assumption?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:20PM ET (-0500 GMT)
harmlesbob - The equinox is relevent, but not necessarily an important date. Paul Montgomery has some interesting ideas on the fall equinox.
txstocks1 . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:20PM ET (-0500 GMT)
calendar: thanX for your comments (: I also follow Jerry Favors, but he admitted the 3 peaks and a domed house pattern he predicted back in February was incorrect. I guess he can't get it right everytime, lol. So, I have learned to listen to several technicians and analysts. (:
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:22PM ET (-0500 GMT)
perspect - I don't look at the man made aspects of the calendar i.e. week month, beyond the known effects such as strength at month's end etc. I'm more interested in the "natural" calendar. I would like to have the date of "halloween" the original holiday of panic and darkness changed to the lunar crash dates in late October. Obviously the markets should be closed then.
wnf . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:23PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, I'm a subscriber and love your work. You've pinpointed Oct.6 for the nearest turning point,most likely an intermediate term low. Three questions: 1) How do you see the market movement unfolding between now and then? e.g. 3 wave down, 5 wave down, straight down (from c.July 17 top)? 2) At what point would you change your mind about this or any upcoming date appearing to be a low or a high? 3) What about potential dates in November or December for intermediate highs/lows, and will the Dec 10-17 dates for the Eastern markets push us to new lows?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:25PM ET (-0500 GMT)
heartbeat - The gold chart looks good, but the metal acts like a pig so often. Gold has a history of September lows, though usually in odd numbered years. The date next August is interesting, but too far away to form an opinion on now.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:27PM ET (-0500 GMT)
dgoto - Bad calls? Not paying attention to the markets. The Spiral Calendar is ONE tool, and the markets require a full toolbox. After my disastrous call for a major top in March 1995 I went back to the drawing board to work on being a well-rounded technician. I've always been good at admitting mistakes (floor trader experience) but we always have to force ourselves to reexamine what the market tells us each and every day.
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:28PM ET (-0500 GMT)
does your research lend itself to the petro complex in as much as that is causing some consternation at the moment.?
mikede . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:29PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris is your work only for equites, or does it also work for commodities, if so I would be interested in your view on the timing of the grains, specifically beans.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:29PM ET (-0500 GMT)
perspect - Fibonacci is underlying the Spiral Calendar, though I'll be a little heretic here and state that I'm not convinced that it's always so useful in the price department. I also think it's overused, such as when people count fibonacci "months". How does the market know what a month is??
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:30PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, would you bet against the dollar here? :)
heartbeat . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:30PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, thanks for your response on Gold. I hear you! Could you give us a clue concerning the content or direction of your next book and when it might be becoming available?
dgoto . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:30PM ET (-0500 GMT)
calendar thanks
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:33PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris --- have you ever done a statistical analysis to determine how many times a calendar date has produced a contrary as opposed to an expected result? Ceteris paribus, it would seem signals are missed more often than the ones that are spectacularly hit.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:34PM ET (-0500 GMT)
wnf - I don't know ho we unfold into October 6. It should be a low, but if Asian markets are follow the 1929-1987 pattern, that date becomes a high for them. The key is the past two years the October lows came right on the Spiral Calendar dates. In 1998, I waited for the later "lunar crash" dates and missed the low. I suspect we bottom near October 6, and if China crashes later in the month maybe we test. Any low now should be more important than Nov or Dec dates, though I reserve the option to change my mind based on what the market gods are doing.
g9 . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:36PM ET (-0500 GMT)
calendar, in your 82 book there was no mention of dec 2001 in the future forecasts. When did it come to light?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:36PM ET (-0500 GMT)
strudle - When a stock is "in gear" I mean it displays all the emotions of "the crowd". I would stay away from the NASDAQ favorites here. Even if we have the 15 months more of bull market ahead, the market will make sure that most bulls don't make much. That's why the value line idea makes sense, and it's chart looks so darn good also.
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:36PM ET (-0500 GMT)
sorry... all reservations are spoken for. But we can put you on the waiting list. ;)
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:37PM ET (-0500 GMT)
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:38PM ET (-0500 GMT)
dgoto - The increase in daytrading has helped my work as the markets are more emotional. If 100% of the money on wall street was managed by computer models, then sentiment work would be useless. It's the basal ganglia (the emotional part of the brain) which keeps the swings in the market.
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:40PM ET (-0500 GMT)
You've done a lot of work on sentiment vis-a-vis P/C ratios etc. Where do they stand right now?
coach . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:40PM ET (-0500 GMT)
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:40PM ET (-0500 GMT)
harmlesbob - For the past year I've called for a "false spring" (see charts) which is a temporary inflationary period. I think it will last until next December. I wish I could do more analysis on oil prices, but I'm limited by the daily data available. I do forecast turns in oil, but it's hard to develop a long-term picture for that market.
g9 . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:41PM ET (-0500 GMT)
oops, sorry, 1992 book ....
capnkirke . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:42PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Please forgive me for asking a hard question, but will we see any substance in this chat? I'm hearing plenty of "style" with lots of hedging but not a lot of firm commitment to a structured prescription for the future. Isn't the spiral calendar fairly rigid? It is, after all, just arithemetic, is it not? The Egyptians bulit multi-storey mausoleums with it. So will we see specific predictions for any markets?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:42PM ET (-0500 GMT)
mikede - I don't limit myself to equities, but I don't do any market that "lives", grains meats etc. The weather and crop cycles add anothe layer of complexity that may distort the Spiral Calendar. I have heard testimonials from many that use the SC on those markets successfully, but I don't even try.
monitize . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:43PM ET (-0500 GMT)
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:43PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris --- are you familiar with Bill Erman? If so, what is your opinion of Ermanometry?
monitize . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:43PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris--- i admire your work, it is most intriguing. your Saros cycle work suggests that central eclipses of the sun correlate with panic market events. have you given any thought as to why this is so? what physical process may be at work?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:43PM ET (-0500 GMT)
capnkirke, seems to me when someone says the bull market will top December 2002 that about as definitive as you can get.
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:43PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris - are you seeing an Asian meldown - or just china... how would you rate your confidence in this? Any thoughts on Euro vs Dollar? thanks
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:45PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excal - No I wouldn't bet against the dollar vs the euro, though the yen is another matter. Since te euro didn't bottom in July, I'm beginning to think the final dollar top is not until Sept 2001. But I'm fitting my dollar outlook to my stock outlook, hence I'm not completely comfortable with the buck.
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:45PM ET (-0500 GMT)
(meltdown)
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:45PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excal is that dec 2001?
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:46PM ET (-0500 GMT)
fwiw, newsflash --- Korea is right now only 8 points off of its 52 wk low. Sorry for the interruption. ;)
capnkirke . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:46PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excalibur - thanks for the reply. Where did you see the Dec 2002 top call. This is my first time here.
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:46PM ET (-0500 GMT)
capnkirke, seems to me when someone says the bull market will top December 2002 that about as definitive as you can get.
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:46PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Cap'n Kirk, suggest you scroll back to the charts b4 the chat started. Plenty of substance there, pal.
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:47PM ET (-0500 GMT)
capnkirke, ooops, that's December 2001!
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:47PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris--as yourwork becomes more popu;ar--what is the effect of increased observers on the " experiment" are the number of observers affecting or changing the outcome in any aprectiable way?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:47PM ET (-0500 GMT)
heartbeat - The next book will combine three concepts, Spiral Calendar, eclipse cycles, and the Long Wave. The charts tonight lay out the gist of the reasoning. When will it be out? My wife wants to know that one too. Somewhere in 2001, hopefully early.
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:48PM ET (-0500 GMT)
capnkirke -- You can enter a large number (triple digit) in the "Optional" scroll-back box under the text entry field, to the right of the "Post / See messages" button, and get all of tonight's chat on your screen at once.
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:48PM ET (-0500 GMT)
thrifty, there will always be enough doubters of anything having to do with the moon that that is likely not a problem....my guess.
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:48PM ET (-0500 GMT)
;)
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:49PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris - do you do any work with counting the equinoxes... especially - is there any special significance to those when they occur at or near full moons?
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:50PM ET (-0500 GMT)
great spelling thrifty lol
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:50PM ET (-0500 GMT)
(2 questions)
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:52PM ET (-0500 GMT)
circular - I did a statistical test of major dates. Search the LongWaves site under "Numerological Darts." I have lots of dates that are useless. But it seems that the more important the date is, the better the record. The real value is in spotting the major turns within a small time window. Enter trades with a daily chart, take losses on a daily chart, and take profits on a monthly chart. July 1998 was an example. Because of the Spiral Calendar dates, we were able to sell much earlier than most, while still recognizing that the subsequent decline was going to be large. Becuse we got in so close to the top, our risk reward ratio was much larger than most. Yes, I take lots of small losses.
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:52PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excal--I was referring to the effect the obervers have on the observed --hope I was clear--oh I see what you meant -said but Chris is getting increasingly regarded which may affect the outcome, maybe
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:54PM ET (-0500 GMT)
g9 - The Dec 2001 forecast came together last May in Spiral Calendar terms, but it wasn't until August when I figured out the eclipse part of the equation, which is very exciting as it provided a much more complete picture of what is happening and why. The December 2001 forecast is related to the chart in the book on 61, but I didn't put it together than.
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:55PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, looks like time is running out on the chat. Just wanted to thank you for taking the time. VERY interesting!
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:55PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris --- thanks for the reference. I'll check it out.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:56PM ET (-0500 GMT)
pistachio - put/call work is slightly bullish here, but I think we get a respite for a few days and then renewed decline. Option volume has been generally light the last few months.
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:56PM ET (-0500 GMT)
fwiw, the new moon/gold spike theory hasn't been kind the last 2 months. LOL!
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:56PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Thanks Chris for a great evening and the education
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:57PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris--the new or is it full moon effect on a gold that seemed to work previously doesn't seem to be operating the last couple of months any reason ?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:57PM ET (-0500 GMT)
calendar, can you say something briefly about the difference between spring new moons/full moons and the ones in the latter part of the year.
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:58PM ET (-0500 GMT)
circ :)
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:58PM ET (-0500 GMT)
capnkirk - The bullmarket will end in December 2001, that's substance. My charts have more information, if you're willing to attempt some visual thinking. Sorry there's not time to pull it all apart here tonight.
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:58PM ET (-0500 GMT)
lunatic fringe
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:59PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Plenty of excellent questions tonight, but please post any final questions that you may have as Chris continues to post his answers. Thank you.
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:59PM ET (-0500 GMT)
12/2001 ... guess that means hold the nose and buy for now. Ugh.
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:59PM ET (-0500 GMT)
tonite's harvest moon should prove interesting in tomorrows markets
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 8:59PM ET (-0500 GMT)
circular - I know Bill Erman. Interesting guy. There's something there in his work, though I can't seem to fully grasp it. I think he has a piece of the puzzle, which is more than I can say for "delta".
g9 . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:00PM ET (-0500 GMT)
my favourite fixed cycle in the mkt is f17, has been deadly since 74 .... we have another one coming up next month, is this a correct way to use the f's, or do you like 2 or 3 in conjunction for a cit?
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:00PM ET (-0500 GMT)
not sure I know who "delta" is, but... thanks.
wnf . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:01PM ET (-0500 GMT)
To any doubters out there, Chris helped me preserve a lot of capital last April and May. Thanks Chris!!
notop . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:01PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Calendar, you ask: How does the market know what a month is?? easy. it counts the full moons ;-)
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:02PM ET (-0500 GMT)
monetize - good question. I don't know about the physical process, but it seems that my results are the evidence that should point the physicists in the right direction. The science of consciousness is the great unknown. But so is the science of time and the science of gravity. It shouldn't be a surprise that all three have there fingerprints markets' emotional behavior.
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:02PM ET (-0500 GMT)
f17?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:02PM ET (-0500 GMT)
agree, wnf, as he says his work is not stand alone but it is one heck of a tool!!!
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:02PM ET (-0500 GMT)
preservation of capital is obligatory. The name of the game is profit. ;)
perspect . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:04PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Many thanks for all the input Chris. Very much appreciated here.
perrym . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
really enjoyed tonight ,,alot of new thinking for me.
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
I guess my questions were too stupid to deserve a reply???
perspect . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
If you are still there, Chris, do you have a web site?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
rsk - The asian crash scenario is interesting. I'm intrigued by the "6th moon" concept in the chart. And that so many Asian markets look like crap here. When my work is correct, we should see distinct and convincing changes in sentiment and direction. The whole eastern hemisphere markets, stock and currency look like garbage. Plus, the Chinese never devalued their currency with the rest of Asia in 1997. That's a swords over their head. I'm watching it carefully. I think it might crash.
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
rsk ;)
notop . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:05PM ET (-0500 GMT)
thanks Calendar
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:06PM ET (-0500 GMT)
(ooops)
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:07PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Korea is now a mere 6 points from its 52 wk low, fwiw.
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:07PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Sorry Chris - must be the moon - or my hormones.... thought you had ignored me.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:07PM ET (-0500 GMT)
thrifty - My work is too esoteric to become mainstream, and I'm lousy at marketing, so I'll never have thousands of subscribers. But I hope too have that problem. :)
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:07PM ET (-0500 GMT)
too funny rsk
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:08PM ET (-0500 GMT)
so why do they call it the Won anyway, when it always seems to be losing? Nevermind.
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:08PM ET (-0500 GMT)
I like esoteric...
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:08PM ET (-0500 GMT)
rsk - yes the relationship of the lunar phase to the equinox does seem important. It's touched on in part in chapter 5 of my book, and I've done some more work on it, though my interest is more in eclipses now.
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:09PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris you are doing us all a favor I am sure you could trade for a living and not offer us the education of you so chose to do so..:o)
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:09PM ET (-0500 GMT)
rsk -- questions are essentially being addressed on a first-in / first-out basis.
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:09PM ET (-0500 GMT)
if
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
now there's a zen question
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
;-) LOL
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris -- w/ excal as a one woman cheering team --don't bet on not being mainstream--thanks for the time and sharing your thoughts and research --come back often
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
avid - I'm a bone head
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris Carolan's web site is www.calendarresearch.com ( site link ).
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:10PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris, there was one question I had back at the start that was never answered. In the long wave chart, the implication is that 2001-2004 resembles something like 1929-1932. Id that a fair assumption?
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:11PM ET (-0500 GMT)
thrifty - I think lunar phase effects are seasonally dependent. In other words, a full moon in spring behaves like a new moon in autumn. This idea explains why those who've done statistical tests on lunar phases always say ther's no connection to the markets. But they never sort the data by season. Tendencies like what gold was doing in the spring (rallying near new moons) seems to come and go. (maybe thrifty is right about the observations on this one)
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:11PM ET (-0500 GMT)
a bone head is a rune. Kewl.
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:11PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excal ;)
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:12PM ET (-0500 GMT)
circ, they call it the "renminbi" because it can only reminisce about its former value :)
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:12PM ET (-0500 GMT)
rsk -- that's actually a characteristic shared by many successful traders ;)
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:12PM ET (-0500 GMT)
LOL
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:12PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris --- now THAT is interesting. Dragon's Head vs Dragon's Tail vis-a-vis interpretation of lunar data.
rsk . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:12PM ET (-0500 GMT)
;-)
perspect . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:13PM ET (-0500 GMT)
So it is the moon's orientation to the SUN that matters?
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:14PM ET (-0500 GMT)
: )
harmlesbob . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:14PM ET (-0500 GMT)
then call me a bonehead :o)
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:14PM ET (-0500 GMT)
never trust a currency with more than two formal names. Remnimbi? Yuan? Huh?
thrifty . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:14PM ET (-0500 GMT)
and it isn't often I'm right so I'll take even a maybe -;) thanks again Chris and to you too Avid who/what ever you are for sponsoring this chat w/ Chris
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:15PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excalibur - Somebody (yeah maybe me) ought to do the rigourous work on the lunar data and make some greater sense out of it then I have yet. I do tend to think that where the moons (and eclipses) fall relative to the seasons has a lot to do with things, but the events are necessarily on those moons. example. the way the central solar eclipses are occurring near the summer solstice also happened in the Renaissance and at the height of the Roman empire. But that specific eclipse will not be relevent, rather it will be six months earlier in Dec 2001 where the glass goes from half full to half empty in the view of emotional investors.
wnf . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:16PM ET (-0500 GMT)
circular - didn't want to brag... :-)
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:17PM ET (-0500 GMT)
g9 - F17 (3.2 years) Well different people use these time periods differently. In general, the odd numered units seem more active. Are you just stacking these sequentially? If so, I don't use them that way.
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:17PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris --- that's what I was getting at in my question about statistical analysis.
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:18PM ET (-0500 GMT)
All these years and we don't know if _Avid_Trader is a he, she, they or it? :)
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:18PM ET (-0500 GMT)
All -- There are just several questions left for Chris to answer. While he is doing that, please know that your attendance and participation here this evening is very much appreciated. These were some of the best (and most) questions asked of a guest in quite some time. Chris -- you should take that as a compliment!
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:19PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris -- no offense, but I assume that you trade your system. If so, have you ever posted your results? After all, that is the bottom line.
_avid_trader_ . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:19PM ET (-0500 GMT)
excalibur -- ;)
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:20PM ET (-0500 GMT)
pistachio - Most likely 2001-2004 will look like 1929-1932, as I am in the camp that believes this inflation is temporary and a deflationary winter will follow.
excalibur . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:20PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Thanks, Chris, I hope you don't give up research for trading .....would be a loss for the rest of us...I am glad that people like you are academic enough to do the searching and to share it with us.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:20PM ET (-0500 GMT)
perspect - It's the orientation of all three bodies, earth sun and moon. (but NO PLANETS!)
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:21PM ET (-0500 GMT)
avid_trader spelled backwards is Red Art Diva. Either this is signficant, or a CD is on the way.
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:21PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Again, thanks for the time and comments, Chris. Much appreciated!
bootdoc . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:21PM ET (-0500 GMT)
she, he, it SH#@
pistachio . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:22PM ET (-0500 GMT)
i'va red dart, circ
wnf . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:22PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Thanks, Chris. Night all!
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:22PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Korea is now 4 points off its 52 wk low.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:24PM ET (-0500 GMT)
circular - I'm not a short term trader. I spent the 1980s as a full time trader and retired on October 16, 1989. I consider myself primarily a researcher now, though I place a few trades a year when all the ducks are in a row. The question that interests me most is "what makes the market tick?", which I realize is different from "how do I make the most money today?" Since I spent 8 1/2 years on the trading floor, I think my persective is not academic, but real.
calendar . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:25PM ET (-0500 GMT)
thanks everyone, this was fun! g-nite
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:25PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Fortunately for the Koreans, the 52 wk low is still 100% higher than the 1998 low.
perspect . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:26PM ET (-0500 GMT)
Chris: Correction: I should have said that if new moons in spring produce effects similar to full moons in the fall then it is THE MOON'S ORIENTATION TO THE BACKGROUND STARS THAT IS IMPORTANT, is it not?
circular . . Wed, Sep 13, 9:27PM ET (-0500 GMT)
chris -- many thanks. fwiw, I am currently developing a statistical survey of market prognostication vis-a-vis calendar and astrological forecasting. If you don't mind, I may email you soon. |
