Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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Nov 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (109605)	8/13/2018 2:28:20 AM
From: John Pitera	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 218326

This is a Text book currency crisis that is morphing into a debt and liquidity crisis, due to policy mistakes and its going to take more that the central bank policy rising interest rates by 1000 basis points to save the lira, This is the assessment by Brown Brothers Harriman and they are 110% correct. emerging market volatility is soaring by the most since the Chinese deliberately devaluation-ed the Yuan in 2015. The Credit default swaps of Turkey have vaulted above those of Greece even thought the Greece has a credit rating several levels lower than Turkey..... so the situation is deteriorating rapidity. The price of crude oil which was below 200 Lira earlier in the year has gone up to over 480 Lira... and DJT on Friday upped the tariffs on Turkish products on Friday..... tossing some fuel on the fire... On Friday Morning Tom Keene on Bloomberg was pointing out how the Turkish Lira had blown our in price over the week and especially from Thursday to Friday from a 2 standard deviation move to a 4 Standard Deviation Move. A 4 standard deviation movie moves you up to the 99.9% statistical population set. I remember in Jan of 2000 how it was discussed and I wrote on the intro to the Market Lab thread head that the Nasdaq Composite had reach a 4 standard deviation level above it's 200 day Moving average.... and we see how that turned out!!!. a 3 standard deviation is 99.7. John

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