Well, they've had a string of successes so far, during which time they have about doubled their value, so earlier examples of the effect of launch failure on stock price may no longer be valid. The most recent success was followed by about a five-to-seven point increase, but it also had 8 revenue-generating ORBCOMM satellites aboard. This next one has only two. But, it is on a Taurus, which has flown only once before (I think), so it might be viewed as more important than another "confirmatory" XL launch. On the other hand, I'm not sure how important the Taurus is to ORBI's future, given all the competition that is coming on smallsat launches from ground level. Also, there is a lot of new $$ in the stock, which could be either skittish, or giddy.
My guess is a successful next Taurus launch will appear to boost the stock to $37-$38, while a failure might knock it to $28-$29. |
