Patrick Slevin in 1st place Index and Interest Rate Futures Trading Championship ----
in a moment of synchronicity I have mentioned Patrick Slevin twice in my post on Thursday August 16th
Message 31748015
the first mention was in respect to his popular thread back in 1998-2001 "trading the spoos with Patrick
Slevin, and the further down in my anecdotal history of Silicon Investor contacts and adventures over
the years Patrick one of our group of 5 including Tom D, ( Jorj x, his boss at CSCO Gary, Kirk and myself
who were have a 2:30 AM salad at a dining venue in the MGM when Patrick and Gary got into
a really heated discussion as to how good the water quality was in the water aqufars of Northern New
Jersey...... and low and behold his name is mentioned today by the Industry legion, Larry Williams,
we were watching Larry Williams and his associate give another outstanding Tradestation presentation
today from 11 AM - 12 . As he was closing someone commented on the online chat column that Patrick
Slevin was Index and Interest Rate Futures Trading Championship . Larry Williams obviously knows
Patrick... as many of us old timers on SI have the privilege to know him...
and Patrick is obviously doing well and is proverbially "kicking ass and talking names" -g-
worldcupchampionships.com
Larry Williams is giving a repeat of his webinar on Wednesday evening at 6 PM..... I recommend catching it
if you can... Larry also has a bunch of YouTube videos that have some great content.... I would focus on
the Tradestation ones.. yes he's typically selling you something but always getting you thinking about
new perspectives and ways of viewing, trading, investing and the markets.... today he pointed out that
over the years in the audited real money trading championships the greatest rate of returns have statistically been in the Futures division, as compared to the stocks, options and FX divisions.
his comment was "go were the low hanging fruit is"
worldcupchampionships.com
He commented how he was using insane leverage and "pinning your ears back" and going "balls to the
walls" when he racked up an incredible 11,376% return in the Futures division in 1987 ..back then it was
know as the Robbins World Trading cup competition....
Looking at that 11,376% return.... he must have hit the trifecta of the great black monday crash and been
Short the SPX, Long bonds... and had the concomitant correct currency (long CHF, or DEM) or more
likely long gold... but then he must have successfully flipped from short to long the SPX and
from long to short in the bond on Oct 19th and then Oct 20th.....
Just speculating.... those of you who were there or want to go back and study the charts or learn how
markets operate under times of distress..... it's worth learning about these things as market cycles
repeat themselves.....
Those of you who have been actively been following this thread have probably seen my post where I
commented that one of the areas that I have been focusing on the past several months have been the
US interest rate futures and yield curve plays.....
siliconinvestor.com
(what I mean by a yield curve play is being long the ten and short the five or having a 2 -10 year spread
position on .... obviously the main trend has been for that spread to tighten... and it's much less volatile
than being in outright long SPX, NDX... Contracts,)
more detailed examples of yield curve plays are provided by a most astute gentleman
John Herrmann1st degree connection1st
Director, Interest Rates Strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities (USA), Inc.Greater New York City Area
John is a real expert in this kind of interest rate spread market analysis and trading:
I develop proprietary models of the economic cycles of the United States, euro-zone and Chinese economies to produce forecasts and outlooks for inter-bank term funding rates, monetary policy rates and sovereign yield curves.
From these basics, I produce tactical and core strategic interest rate strategies on the yield curves of U.S. Treasury, federal funds rate and eurodollar markets - for our institutional client base.
A few of my trading highlights include:
April 16, 2015: Initiated a "tactical" 5s-30s yield curve steepener in Treasuries (at 124.1 bps). The purpose of this trade was to exploit my models insights that 16 of 17 FOMC participants, as well as Bloomberg consensus, were overly optimistic on payroll, GDP and wage growth for the year 2015 - and the risk that the FOMC may be sidelined for the year 2015.
Nov. 25, 2013: Initiated a core "strategic" yield curve stance: a 5s-30s yield curve flattener in Treasuries and swaps (initiated at 248.8 bps in Treasuries and closed out at 124.1 bps on April 16, 2015). The basis for this stance was my models forecasts for stronger nonfarm payroll growth in 2014 and for a sharp plunge in the U3 unemployment rate in 2014-2015-2016-2017 and of risk of an emerging FOMC interest rate tightening stance.
May 3, 2013: a 5s-30s and 2s-10s bear steepener yield curve strategy in Treasuries and swaps (closed out of trade Sept. 18th). The purpose of this trade was to exploit Ben Bernanke's pessimistic view on job growth for 2013 and that FOMC would need to "taper" its Q.E. programs.
May 19, 2013: a 10s-30s bear flattener yield curve strategy in Treasuries and swaps (closed out of trade Sept. 18th).
May 22, 2013: purchasing puts on EDZ5 and EDZ6 contracts (closed out of trade Sept. 18th).
July 2, 2013: purchasing puts on EDZ7 contracts (closed out of trade Sept. 18, 2013).
Socrates - The unexamined life is not worth living.
Cicero - There is nothing so absurd but some philosopher has said it.
JJP |
