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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: geewiz who wrote (13142)1/15/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius  Read Replies (1) of 18056
 
Hi geewiz, >>She does address some of the conspicuous economic concerns and puts the most unbelieveable uplifting spin to these. As a well-informed independent investor what's your take on this; can an intelligent person with tons of academic credentials wear rose colored glasses and not know it?

I certainly can not see in the future, but I suspect Abbey uses analyst earnings data like other folks in the industry. She is also big on cash flow for the S&P companies. I also assume she looks at trends. If any of her indicators change she will have to adjust her forecasts. It also would not surprise me if she is trying to get some of her institutional customers out at higher prices.<ggg>

What is bothering me from a fundamental point of view is when asia (1/3 of the global economy) devalues and SA has had dealuations...why won't the US and Europe assets devalue also or at least go on hold until the rest of the economies catch up.

One other thing I do not understand is people like Abbey hang their hats on interest rates to justify a high evaluation for this market. There is a point in time when this becomes negative, when I don't know...but look at Japan during the last 7 or so years.

One other thought is the Fed has been pumping money supply in the US economy, which IMO is to keep inflation positive and help deflation to not occur. Isn't this a short term effect?

I am not an expert in these areas but I would like to hear other peoples views. We need to remember markets can swing above and below stock evaluations, in other words markets are more perceptions than anything else on any given day, week, month or year.

Joan
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