HI Rogue,
Bitcoin is completely fascinating.... as we all know... but it's trading makes more and more sense , all
of the time the longer it trades on the CME and the Volume growths on the CME.
That's still only a small % of the volume that is occurring on all these wild west platforms, both in the US,
but especially on the Pac-Rim... especially countries like South Korea and Japan...
he is the daily chart of BTC since short after it was launched on Monday Dec 22nd 2017
I we can see BTC was in a very bearish Descending Triangle which started around $12,000 back in march,
2018 and has been finding support at roughly $6000, with a slight false break to the downside at the
end of June . If BTC were to break down convincingly from the descending triangle the measured
price objective would be some ridiculously low number like $800 or even potentially $0.....
After looking like it was going to break down and head much lower, it then staged a robust rally on strong
volume as the Bitcoin bulls put on a concerted effort to do a circa 1920 "pool operation" and moved it all
the way up to $8,400 at which point all that buying could take it no higher....
The SEC has denied 9 different BTC ETF's from every major company from Vanguard , to Direxion, to
Blackrock ...etc, etc.... that has not helped the Bull camp in BTC..
Also, the overall group of 1500 + group of Cryptocurrencies have been in a withering liquidation bear
market and other key Cryptocurrencies such as Ether have had negative fundamental and technical
stories continue to occur.
thus BTC has fallen back to it's key support area of $6000 -$6125 ish.... and the price is just sort of
flat lining on life support.... or that lower horizontal support line. It still makes logical sense that if
Bitcoin can not hold this bottom horizontal support line, in a Normal world (and bitcoin and the Crypto's
in general are off in a super string theory parallel universe and thus the normal laws of Physics,
Finance and even general Relativity have rarely applied to them.
So we are at the point of "Waiting for Godot" i.e. waiting for the price action to decide to stage a bull move
or a bear move...... or maybe BTC will just stay around $6500 for the rest of it's days and burn all of
the mountains of OTC and at this point I would assume the CME has puts and calls they have developed
on Bitcoin Futures....
It's great to see the volume of contracts expand as you can see with the moving average of volume
continuing to rise.....
I participated in 2 webinars with Larry Williams in the past 5 days.. Larry is pretty dubious as to
the future of the Cryptocurrencies..... as well as Bitcoin...
We were talking with Andrew Keene, who was an AAPL options market maker on the CBOE for 15 years,
yesterday and some one else asked him, if Bitcoin was in a Bear Market .... Andrew commented
"well let's see BTC was up at $20,000 in Dec , is down to $6,000.... a 70% decline... a would call that
a bear market"
sorry for the delay in my response time... I always feel like I have to do more homework when I
get asked about the state of CRYPTOLAND.... I had a couple of IM chats and phone call with two of
my 20 + year friends and a partner in the firm I'm with .... (all 3 of them are really deeply involved in
Crypto trading ) for me it's almost as if they have < become involved in a very intense cult>
but that just shows that, I am either way to conservative and or just old and in the way -vbg-
vbg = very big grin.
John |
