Thanks for the tip - I will look into them.
I've been starting to wonder at what point I'm overexposed to this
sector. Context: I manage a smallish portfolio for a charitable
foundation. When I took it over, it was very conservatively invested.
About 60% bonds (which we need for income) and the rest very, very
conservative large cap stocks. I branched out cautiously, with buys
like Amber Energy and Silcorp, which have performed quite nicely.
Subsequent additions in the junior/small cap energy and related sector
include Northrock Pete., Barrington, Genesis, NQL tools and Post. Not
huge positions relative to the size of the portfolio - maybe around two
per cent -- but this is a *very* conservative outfit. On the other
hand, these smaller outfits are what I'm counting on for growth.
Did you see the comment out of the CERI conference? A U.S. analyst
talking about $10 oil? I don't give that much creedence (what is
Saudi production capacity these days, anyway?), but it's a good
reminder that just because things are going very well right now doesn't
mean there aren't lean times ahead.
All that aside - is it time to cash out of Amber and put that money
into a Newport or a Truax? Amber's multiple is high, but such a track
record!
Yes, Genesis has had a nice run. One of the people who recommended it
to me had already cashed out, up 100%. They have averaged 1,500 boe/d
this year (triple last year), expect to average 1,850, and to end
December at 2,250. That makes next year's projection of 3,000 seem
plausible. I'm hoping that this will be a nice stock over the next
year or two.
As for Post, one thing I found persuasive was their finding cost:
$2.23/boe. How do you not make money with that kind of a number?
Their costs can double and still be on the low side of average.
Again thanks for the tips -- I'll take a look at Richland, Truax and
Newport.
Regards. |
