Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) was a hedge fund management firm [1] based in Greenwich, Connecticut that used absolute-return trading strategies combined with high financial leverage. The firm's masterhedge fund, Long-Term Capital Portfolio L.P., collapsed in the late 1990s, leading to an agreement on September 23, 1998, among 16 financial institutions—which included Bankers Trust, Barclays, Bear Stearns, Chase Manhattan Bank, Crédit Agricole, Credit Suisse First Boston, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Paribas, Salomon Smith Barney, Société Générale, and UBS—for a $3.6 billion recapitalization ( bailout) under the supervision of the Federal Reserve. [2]

LTCM was founded in 1994 by John W. Meriwether, the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers. Members of LTCM's board of directors included Myron S. Scholes and Robert C. Merton, who shared the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for a " new method to determine the value of derivatives". [3] Initially successful with annualized return of over 21% (after fees) in its first year, 43% in the second year and 41% in the third year, in 1998 it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months following the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 1998 Russian financial crisis, requiring financial intervention by the Federal Reserve, with the fund liquidating and dissolving in early 2000.

August 30th 2018 ...note by JJP on LinkedIN...

To: John P who wrote (21222) 8/19/2018 6:48:47 PM From: John P 2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 21293 USD Big Picture Update--- YEN and NiKKEI as well. It's really quite simple Here is the 45 year Monthly chart of the $USD index, and as you can see we this week's high hit the 50% retracement of the Bear Market Move in the USD from July 5th high of 121.21 in 2001 all the way down to the low of 71.33 on april 23rd 2008. A TIME move of exactly 2484 days which is 6 years, 9 months and 18 days we then experienced a very choppy volatile period from the 2008 low into a near double bottom in 2011 and then began a sluggish uptrend that became very explosive and impulse like advance with the April 2014 low of 78.93.. we boomed upt to 100.71 on 3/17/15 ( which I commented on 3/18/15 : The USD. Had a potential to have an medium term top to longer term top when the $USD registered it a reading of $100.71 yesterday. It is super over extended over it's 200 DMA and 50 WMA.) Message 29989344 we then had an A-B-C correction and reached a major top which was a .618 retracement of the entire decline from the 2001 to 2008 bear market. the top was on Jan 23 2017 @ 103.82 A TIME CYCLE move of 3197 days which is exactly 8 years, 9 months and 0 days. so the ratio between the decline and the advance to the jan 23 2017 high of 103.83 was a ..7769 Fibonacci Time Ratio, splitting the difference for those who feel it is .7639 & others who feel it is .7861 Notice that the USD coming the 1/23/17 dropped straight down to the 200 Month Moving average where it caught rock solid support Now as we Examine 25 YEAR MONTHLY USD Chart, we can again see additionally that the decline from the 01/23/2017 high of 103.8 down to the 02/16/2018 low of 88.15 in addition to hitting the 200 month MA, we has an extreme Bollinger Band % low...... in fact it was the lowest since late 2007 as we were approaching the terminal 2008 low., the only previous 2 lows in the BB % were the initial decline off the 2001 decline, and the major low at 80.43 in 1995. since then we have moved up and as you can see the USD received some resistance by a .236 retracement and rode upt the rising 50 Month MA and took out the resistance of the 21 Month MA . At the Highs of this past week , the technical trader know it has been a very fast move up and that we have hit 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2001 high and the April 23 2008 low... so we will have some back and filling to do... THE 35 YEAR USD/JPY MONTHLY CHART --- SHOWS A VERY TIGHT COIL..... notice how tight the Bollinger band range is extremely narrow , so we should expect a breakout... Let's see if the PMO can generate a buy signal... THE 48 YEAR MONTHLY NIKKEI AVERAGE ---- shows how the Japanese market had very nicely followed it's bull trend channel up and hit previous resistance as well as Fibonacci resistance.... It will be quite pivotal to all Japanese assets, the Currency, Stocks and JGB's, what the Bank of Japan does as they appear to be Lazarus arising from the dead ..... following the FED's lead, and leaving Negative Interest rates and endless QE, ZIRP etc behind...... we shall see stay tuned.... Message 31727138 JJP

To: John P who wrote (21225)	8/20/2018 3:59:51 PM
From: John P	2 Recommendations of 21293
Bookend Post on the USD --- 2008 USD Bottom caused by FED extending 10 Trillion in Currency Swaps Lines with the ECB, as the ECB was under extreme balance sheet duress and the FED became the lender of last resort to the world. The BULL MARKET OF THE LATE The CRASHING AND BURNING OF JAPAN,THE SINGAPORE EQUITY MARKET AND THE SOUTH KOREAN MARKET HELPED GREASE THE PATH FORTHE TAKE OFF OF OUR MASSIVE $USD AND US STOCK MARKET BOOM FROM 1995 UNTIL 2000(July 02 2001 for the $USD) The Bottom line is the the GFC of 2007-2009 Created the bottom in the USD index which had a 60% Decline from the Great dotcom bubble top which in the USD index occurred on July 5th 2001 @ 121.21 and declined 60% over the following 6 years, 9 months and 18 days into the Global Financial Crisis Low of USD index of 71.33 on 04/23/2008........ looking at the research of Adam Tooze and the accompanying chart in his article the GFC did not really end but , in fact, changed the world into an interlocking Matrix of US Fed, ECB, and other Central bank interrelation ships via QE and various balance sheet expansion, global ZIRP programs.... 2/3 of the developed world entering into the "alice in wonderland world of negative yield curves." Last week, one market strategist commented that there is still $9 billion of Government securities priced with negative yields. JP --------------------------------------------------------------------- Though Tooze is a historian, it would be misleading to call this a history book. Ten years later, the the crisis still essentially determines how the financial system works, thanks to the political decisions and interventions by central banks in response to it. There has been no “return” to normal. Tooze, whose previous subjects include the Nazi economy and American global power during the interwar period of the 20th century, offers a compelling account of what he argues was a North Atlantic crisis created by a global “interlocking matrix” of corporate balance. While tackling the political nature of both the crisis and the responses to it, he also unpacks the technicalities of financial underpinnings of the crisis, highlighting the importance of the the global banking system’s dependence on the US dollar. Crashed tears apart the notion that the 2008 crisis was American, and then, separately, a few years later, there was a European sovereign debt crisis. These crises, Tooze writes, were intrinsically linked in part because European banks had heavily involved themselves in America’s financial system. And this also meant Europe was deep into the US subprime-mortgage market—nearly a third of high-risk mortgage-backed securities that weren’t backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac were held by European investors. One of the surest signs of the deepening of the crisis was the desperate attempts of banks, particularly European institutions, to access dollars. Interbank lending rates sky rocketed and worsened the crisis. (editorial note by JJP... Hence the very huge upswings in the $USD index from 71.33 up to 88.19 then a wild swing back down to 74.17 at the start of 2010, another bull surge up into Q2 of 2010 to 88.71 and another crash plunge of $USD 72.70 in Q1 of 2011...... after which we then embarked up a sustained bull market in the USD index that took us to 103.82 on Jan 23 2017.... which was a .618 retracement of the entire USD bear market from 07/02/2001 @122.21 down to the 5 wave crash low of 71.33 on 04/23/2008 . Thus now we have the Global macro understanding and underpinning that explains the technical action,If you examine the extreme low in the %B on the Monthly USD chart we see that the extreme low,which occurred at the start of 2018 is a very rare occurrence only being reached in late 2007 as we were getting to the terminal stage of the USD bear market, the time before that in Q2 of 2002,as we had solid confirmation that the huge bull advance from 1995 into the top of 2001 had yielded a major trend change from bull to bear market in the USD, and the previous severe low in the %B was a signal of the kickoff of the great asset influx into our illustrious Wild Bull Market that went into warp overdrive from 1999 into March -April of 2000.... a case can be made that this may be happening once again as with so many of the emerging market currencies and equity markets under big time stress we may be seeing a flight to safety, into the USD and also into US stocks that could having a blow off phase to it.....something similar to the massive USD rally that occurred from 1995to 2001, the assets and currencies gravitating to the USA to get into the great Nasdaq technologydotcom, and B2B euphoria.... huge PE's were even seen in fortune 500 companies that were showingrevenue growth, earnings growth and dividend growth..... stocks such as KO, PG, PFE, GE I am going to include an article I wrote back in 2002 that discusses how money chases assets fromasset class to asset class and also from emerging markets until they go to extreme valuations , blowup, and then move from Pac Rim to The USA as my article articulates.... there is actually a possibilitythat something similar to the late 1990's experience occurs again, where pervasive USD strength,couple with emerging market currency weakness ( think Thai Bhat devaluation of 1997 kicking offa wave of emerging market currency weakness that then translated into into equity market weaknessin some emerging markets and money pouring into the USD and into our great bull market into Early 2000. end of editorial note by JJP) ---------------------------- With the wisdom of hindsight, Tooze believes the critical intervention that mitigated the crisis was not the bank bailouts or central bank asset-buying programs but rather “unprecedented transnational action by the American state” to pump dollars into banks all over the world. Tooze certainly isn’t celebrating these measures but acknowledges that they worked in the short term. He has unflinching scorn for the collective European response to the 2012 crisis, writing that “millions have suffered for no good reason.” While millions suffered in the US as well, Tooze argues that at least in the US, a political decision was made: save Wall Street first and worry about Main Street later. In Europe, there were too many opposing ideas and leadership couldn’t decide how to act. The lack of coordinated response was a disaster. Ask any Greek or Italian today if the crisis is over, and they’d likely share Tooze’s opinion. Reinserting the role of the dollar in this piece of financial history is not just a matter of setting the record straight, writes Tooze, but also essential if we want to adequately prepare for the consequences of Donald Trump’s “declaration of independence from an interconnected and multipolar world.” The dollar locks the global financial system together, and it took the Fed plus a shaky US political coalition—that understood the importance of the US dollar to foreign banks—to take the actions necessary in the aftermath of the crisis to alleviate it. If something were to happen again, Trump’s “America First” policy outlook doesn’t indicate a desire to take actions explicitly designed to help other countries. The supply of US dollars funneled into the global finance system in response to the crisis partly ended up in emerging markets. In recent years, many developing countries used the low rates that followed the crisis to gorge on dollar-denominated debt. The impact of that can be seen today as the US dollar rises and investors wonder if these countries will be able to repay all the debt they’ve accrued. It’s bringing down currencies as far flung from each other as Turkey and Indonesia. A taste-test to see if it’s your style What we have to reckon with now is that, contrary to the basic assumption of 2012-2013, the crisis was not in fact over. What we face is not repetition but mutation and metastasis. The financial and economic crisis of 2007-2012 morphed between 2013 and 2017 into a comprehensive political and geopolitical crisis of the post-cold war order. And the obvious political implication should not be dodged. Conservatism might have been disastrous as a crisis-fighting doctrine, but events since 2012 suggest that the triumph of centrist liberalism was false too. As the remarkable escalation of the debate about inequality in the United States has starkly exposed, centrist liberals struggle to give convincing answers for the long-term problems of modern capitalist democracy. The crisis added to those preexisting tensions of increasing inequality and disenfranchisement, and the dramatic crisis-fighting measures adopted since 2008, for all their short-term effectiveness, have their own, negative side effects. One chart to impress people with what you learned from the book The US Federal Reserve’s liquidity operations feature heavily in Tooze’s narrative of the mitigation of the crisis. Ten years ago, as interbank and wholesale markets closed, there was severe pressure on dollar-funding markets. This is when the Fed made itself the lender of last resort for the world. “It was historically unprecedented, spectacular in scale, and almost entirely unheralded,” Tooze writes. Trillions of dollars were provided through various money-market transactions. One key operation was currency swap lines, where the Fed loans dollars out to other countries’ central banks in exchange for those banks’ currency to be repaid later with interest. They were developed in the 1960s but went out of use after about a decade (though they returned briefly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001). Currency swap lines were revived in 2007 between the Fed and global central banks to give loans of dollars to foreign banks. These loans, though by now repaid in full, show how much extra funding was desperately needed by Europe at the time. By September 2010, total lending and repayment on the swap facilities came to $10 trillion. 35 Long Term Monthly USD/JPY chart Ignore the comment in blue on the above long term USD/JPY chart... the Yen has been in a muliyear weakened pattern since the early 1980's KEY EUR/JPY 10 year monthly chart... Risk off risk on chart.... still below the lower Bollinger band , and was repelled by the 50 week MA and is below the 200 week ma. not that technically strong for the Eur.... an overall risk off environment.... JJP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=31763258 (The URL for the below article published on 08/27/2018, I did move the key takeaway of the article to the start of the article instead of beginning it with the 2 long term US 2 - 10 year US yield curve spread charts) Now Fed head Powell has articulated his Powell doctrine... and waiting to see the Bank of Japan Policy ACTION....... What we do know is that Powell has green lighted a 25 basis point rate hike in Sept and that is going to put us at a potential inflection point either sometime near that .. .. have to see if the long end of the curve goes down in price up in Yield prior to that occurring... but that still might give us 1 more Q depending upon the interplay of the Powell doctrine and the Japanese BOJ own all of Japan's JGB's ..... so paradoxically ; look to Japan as the Secret sauce as to what is going to happen globally with rates , the economy and a roll over depending upon what Japan does...... Japan is unlike any other country on earth.... as you well know since your wife worked for one of the super world class Investment banks their...... My Mentor Joerg Schroeder at Chase.... his wife was working for Nikko securities........ very interesting multifaceted and nuanced world we live in ............ To: John P who wrote (21276) 8/27/2018 1:54:05 AM From: John P 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 21293 THE YEAR WEEKLY CHART OF THE 2 -10 YIELD CURVE SPREAD......... THE 30 YEAR MONTHLY OF THE 2 - 10 SPREAD Now Fed head Powell has articulated his Powell doctrine... and waiting to see the Bank of Japan Policy ACTION....... What we do know is that Powell has green lighted a 25 basis point rate hike in Sept and that is going to put us at a potential inflection point either sometime near that .. .. have to see if the long end of the curve goes down in price up in Yield prior to that occurring... but that still might give us 1 more Q depending upon the interplay of the Powell doctrine and the Japanese BOJ own all of Japan's JGB's ..... so paradoxically ; look to Japan as the Secret sauce as to what is going to happen globally with rates , the economy and a roll over depending upon what Japan does...... Japan is unlike any other country on earth.... as you well know since your wife worked for one of the super world class Investment banks their...... My Mentor Joerg Schroeder at Chase.... his wife was working for Nikko securities........ very interesting multifaceted and nuanced world we live in ------------------------------------------------------------- A Wake-Up Call From Japan Central banks are withdrawing from ultra-loose monetary policy as gradually as possible, but volatility is still inevitable By Richard Barley Aug. 1, 2018 7:49 a.m. ET What happens when you wake a market from deep slumber? Japan is the latest place investors should watch. For a long time, central banks have helped to tamp down swings in markets via ultraloose monetary policy, boosting risk appetite. But things are changing, even in the spiritual home of low interest rates. The Japanese 10-year bond yield jumped to 0.13% on Wednesday, a day after the Bank of Japan’s latest policy decision. That’s the highest since January 2016, when the BoJ introduced negative interest rates. The one-day jump in yields of 0.08 percentage point, which followed a decline of 0.05 percentage point Tuesday, is huge in a market where bond prices have moved only fractionally for months, thanks to the BoJ’s policy of pinning yields close to zero. This could mark a regime change for markets, argue strategists at Mizuho. Two clashing policy tweaks are at work. The BoJ Tuesday introduced forward guidance that monetary policy would stay loose. Central banks have come increasingly to rely on this tool for smoothing market expectations and hence reducing volatility. But the BoJ also said it would allow 10-year yields to move in a wider range—up to 0.2%, said Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Markets are starting to test that new range. The potential for bigger moves in yields is a risk for investors and a boon for traders. Investors will require a higher risk premium to hold bonds, contributing to somewhat higher yields. That could spill over into other markets where Japanese investors have flocked to put cash to work in the face of zero yields at home. The BoJ isn’t going anywhere fast. But the big picture is one where central banks globally are pulling back gradually from years of deep involvement in markets. Snoozing through that process isn’t an option. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Bank of Japan Shift Propels Biggest Bond-Yield Jump in Two Years Rise comes one day after central bank widened trading band; ‘it’s not reflecting fundamentals or anything’ The minute policy changed announced by Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda Tuesday made a large impact on the bond market Wednesday.PHOTO: TORU HANAI/REUTErs By Kosaku Narioka Aug. 1, 2018 6:41 a.m. ET TOKYO—The yield on the benchmark Japanese government bond posted its biggest percentage-point gain in two years, a day after Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said he would allow the yield to move in a wider band. On Tuesday, Mr. Kuroda raised the BOJ’s yield cap on the 10-year Japanese government bond to 0.2% from around 0.1%. The central bank, which buys the equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars in Japanese government bonds every year, has enforced the cap through market operations since it introduced a target of “around zero” for the bond’s yield in September 2016. Message 31727138 August 2016 Japanese Yield curve Message 30694250 -------------------------------------------------------------------- this is from ,my post on july 22 2016 Message 30671155 The monthly chart is somewhat concerning. Price did complete the ascending triangle pattern with the expected upside breakout. However, of concern is a monthly PMO near the top of its range. Conclusion: I'm expecting a short-term decline that will terminate around 134 which was previous resistance at all-time highs. The intermediate-term picture is showing some deterioration but also suggests that support will be found around 134. The long-term monthly chart could be considered bearish based on the PMO reaching the top of its range and could suggest a correction coming in the next few years. For now, our DecisionPoint timing model remains on an intermediate-term BUY signal which could push me to a Bond Timer of the Year title if support is found. If not, a negative 20/50-EMA crossover is likely which would move us to Neutral, meaning fully hedged or in cash. Come check out the DecisionPoint Report with Erin Heim on Wednesdays and Fridays at 7:00p EST, a fast-paced 30-minute review of the current markets mid-week and week-end. The archives and registration links are on the Homepage under “What’s New”. Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Happy Charting! - Erin ----------------------------------------- look at the perfect double bottom Near 1.33% we were putting in the Long term PMO was rolling over as highlighted in red at the time... and the Full stochastic and the RSI were deeply oversold and a key Fibonacci retracement on the 30 year treasury.... was achieved.... this was just before the big generational turn in rates from secular a secular bull bond market to the current secular bear market. ---- rates remain in negative territory on the German and Japanese 10 year Government bond and bund and US 10 year yield hit new lows in yield and new highs in the price of 10 year notes and the long bond. The capital price appreciation in the debt markets has been very rewarding for debt holds. The 10 year note hit highest price / lowest yield since the Cuban missile crisis!! JP ------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- June 9 2017 post--- reprinted to help elaborate on the machinations of the Big 3 central banks and that These are what are moving the markets from a global macro perspective. THE 10 YEAR WEEKLY CHART OF THE "BIG 3 " Global Bond Markets The turn on a dime top in price --- bottom in Yield in the Big 3 Global Bond Markets The 1 year chart of daily YIELD action amplifies the wild thrashing by Japan and Germany (the ECB) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Here is the my Proprietary SPX JJP ATR cross of the Eur/JPY :$WTIC correlation chart. The methodology reinforces the case that we experienced a bear market and has a very good track record. I explained how the chart works in a post on 3/36/17 which I have reposted below the update chart, which has become even more bullish --- this is my proprietary model that uses the EUR/JPY crossrate and then correlates it to WTIC.... so you have 4 of the deepest largest markets in the world..... the Eur/JPY "RIsk On Risk Off" proxy then as a ratio of the single most important global commodity input crude. I have shown this 2 or 3 times this past 15 months............ but it's just esoteric enough that it does not get traction in the layman and even the professional traders mind. and it has had a very good record..... when the 14 week Average true range goes below the long term 200 week average true range with is calculated on the EUR/JPY Crossrate and then divided as a ratio of $WTIC.... what that calculation in KISS (KEEP it SIMPLE STUPID) is doing is showing when the relative volatility of 3 of the worlds biggest pricing components stabilizes.... it creates the necessary price stability in corporate planning models and in Global Macro Institutional Investor Models to expand risk exposure...that is long US equity exposure. To Clarify the signals are generated when the Blue 14 period ATR goes below the long term 200 period Moving average.... and that generates a buy a the Average True Range of the EUR/JPY cross / by WTIC is coming down.. what is nice about this model is that you can have signals that are in effect for 2 years or so at a time. The 72 Year Master Cycle in the US Bond Market A chart from the Oct 2016 34th presentation at the New Orleans investment symposium Last Month was the 1 st anniversary of the 3 hour interview of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates being interviewed by CNBC squawk box Message 30694656 But be sure of one thing we are in uncharted waters...of pretty serious magnitude. When Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates were interviewed on CNBC back at the time of this years Berkshire annual meeting.... The 3 of them were commented that they would ponder what this development of 12 Trillion dollars of Negative Yield Sovereign Debt and the concomitant low yields on other debt instrumets meant to the financial system.. They said they were not Macro economists and did not know. They did comment that they wondered if we had gotten into a box that we would never be able to get out of... I found it remarkable that you have Munger a 91 year old and Buffett at 86 actually falling even a bit susceptible to the idea that things would remain as they are indefinitely...... They have too much life experience to believe that.I will add that you need that psychological capitulation even among the Charlie Munger's to make the Supertanker tops and Bottoms. read the above post to see my comment on clueless 3 of the smartest investment minds in the world were as to were the end of negative yields would be...... It's like that at turning points. Message 30565432 (URL for the below observation on Munger, Buffet and Gates and their thoughts on the 16 billion in Negative yieldingglobal soveriegn debt from 05/02/2016 To: robert b furman who wrote (18184) 5/2/2016 9:32:05 AM From: John P 1 Recommendation of 19159 Negative interest rates was the first Non Berkshire topic that Bill Gates mentioned when on cnbc with Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. I was curious to see what Munger would have to say... he said he does not know what it means.... and how long it would last. Interesting interviews. It was obvious that they did not give their real thoughts as to a couple of the questions. Everyone is impressed with AMZN... it's an amazing company. John All companies are not alike and NVDA or ISRG performance and prospects the past several years are diametrically opposed to a legacy company like GE or IBM. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And this final article written by JJP back in November of 1999, demonstrates how the risk asset Global Macro managers move around the world, into different currencies and asset classes, in a repetitive pattern... with specific difference in every grand 20 year cycle. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=31996 (the below missive written in November of 1999 as You can see by clicking on the above link) THE GREAT PACIFIC RIM BULL MARKET OF THE LATE 1980'S & The CRASHING AND BURNING OF JAPAN, THE SINGAPORE EQUITY MARKET AND THE SOUTH KOREAN MARKET HELPED GREASE THE PATH FOR THE TAKE OFF OF OUR MASSIVE $USD AND US STOCK MARKET BOOM FROM 1995 UNTIL 2000 (July 02 2001 for the $USD) It's interesting to see how Investment perceptions and outlooks change over time, both in regards to a specific stock; and entire market sectors. This extends also to Investing in Different Parts of the World and in different asset classes. I was just talking with Lee- L3 about Mark Mobius's Templeton China Fund (TCH) and I was noticing that since 1994, it's down from $20 to $7 today. I then glanced at SGF. The Singapore Investment Fund (SGF) also made it's all-time high in 1994 at $26 and is currently at $4.50 It reminded me of how eager Investors were to Invest in the Emerging Markets, especially the NIC's (Newly Industrialized Nations) of the Pacific Rim back in the late 1980's and the Early 1990's. Many will remember that both Japan and the Emerging Pac-Rim countries were thought to be driving the American business model out of business due to lack of U S companies to compete, in Global markets. Indeed, Harvard University, IBM, Exxon, GE and many other companies all had programs and seminars to study Japanese Management Skills, then thought to be vastly superior the US models. The Japanese Nikkei 225 average was at 7000 and change in 1982,but had climbed to 39,300 by dec 31st of 1989. No wonder almost everyone thought that the Japanese were going to take over the world, economically speaking. lowrisk.com "The Roaring 80's" by George Goodman, who writes under the nom de plume of Adam Smith, is excellent in capturing the dominant investment and economic - competitiveness thinking that existed back at the cusp of 1990's. In this 1989 book, Goodman outlines the vibrant economies of the Pac-Rim and pointed out that the issue was being raised, whether America would continue to be the significant economic force it had been in the Post World War II years. The Trading history of the Korea Fund (KF) illustrates the Investment boom years advancing from $4 in 1986 all the way to $40 in 1989. Then as the speculative era in the Pac Rim stocks unwound the price fell all the way to $6 in 1997, and is still under $10 today. The Japanese Bubble Burst in 1990 and the Global Flow of Funds began to shift in the early 1990's. European and especially the US Equity markets became increasingly attractive on a Global relative basis. The Emerging Market stocks hit a secondary peak in 1994, and then really fell of of a cliff starting in 1995. Obviously Investors had found Happier Hunting Grounds for their Global Equity Investments; and it's no coincidence at all that, the US Stock Market really began an acceleration of it's Multi-Year Bull Market in 1995. JJP