Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

Recommended by:

Donald Wennerstrom

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (81000)	9/8/2018 11:12:14 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 95530

HI Don, There are a lot of semi companies talking about a slow down looming out there. Cohu referenced mobile phone slow down. Intc is not pursuing 5 or 7 nm. Klac,lrcx, and Amat say memory Capex is slowing. TSMC is the only fab chasing 7nm. While listening to Steve Schwatz CEO of Brooks automation, he indicated that Brks is the only equipment maker that is certified tool of choice for 7nm. They have just purchased a company that stores reticles. It seems to ma (as a complete outsider) that the next node down is providing a lot of delays and push outs. I wonder if the Extreme Ultra Violet light EUV implementation is taking a lot of time to get a yield that is workable? If a production line is not following a proposed ramp up time table - very expensive equipment gets pushed out. Schwartz said the market for equipment is still out there but the difficulty of yield is slowing the sector. Hopefully someone out there with current knowledge can supplement my thought. As always thanks for all you do here with the tables. I think this slow down is partly technical and then somewhat blurred with the trade talks and possible tariffs being applied. It will give us a pause that refreshes. I always like to buy these companies at a great value - I've not bought any for quite a while as they have had a really good run. A retrace and some sideways action here will build strength and give us consolidation - not to mention the ongoing M&A action. Cohu and Ecerra will complete there merger by October 18th ish. All of these long time survivors have established very large installed equipment ownerbases. These installed pieces of equipment provide very large service repair businesses - with very high margins. Cohu's reoccurring service business ran up to 48% of their revenue. As these companies roll up the smaller competitors - they have A BUSINESS MODEL THAT IS NOT AS RELIANT ON THE SALE OF EQUIPMENT SYSTEMS. We have left the era of mobile phone cycles I suspect as well. Industrial AI to autonomous vehicles to 5G to internet of things - there's a big world out there that keeps many busy as a stall to the next down nodes gets resolved - albeit longer than ramp on paper said it would. We'll have a reset to better value and that will be much higher from past resets as some very solid dividends are being paid out to stockholders. The world will once again learn how successful this sector is as they push the envelope. AJMHO. Bob

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next