President Trump’s Four-Pinocchio complaint about the Maria death toll figures
Broadly, then, a range of expert analyses found that more than 1,000 people died than expected in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane and the relief effort.
Then, in August, GWU released its report, estimating excess deaths at between 2,658 and 3,290, with a midpoint of 2,975, in the six months after the storm made landfall. The investigation, based on actual death certificates, compared the number of deaths with typical death rates, adjusting for many variables, including the mass exodus from the island in the aftermath of the storm.
GWU said it counted deaths until February because people continued to die at anomalous rates long after the storm, as the island struggled with infrastructure failures and political infighting. GWU said that the poorer and older the resident, the higher the risk of death, especially among men older than 65. So the number might include an elderly person who died earlier than expected because there was a lack of electricity at home or health-care facilities.
The study, in other words, purposely tried to avoid simply counting elderly people who “died for any reason,” as Trump claimed. GWU researchers said otherwise the count would be 16,608 between Sept. 1 and the end of February.
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