Re: MMs and CYMI stock price
John,
I think you are off by a factor of 10 in calculating the OI: 313 calls = 31,300 shares, not 313,000.
Today's stock action was disappointing, but not neccessarily expiration-related. I also doubt the bad news leakage theory:
At least a half of the daily losses (and half of the trading volume) came at the last hour and coincided with sharp decline in SOX/DOW. This selloff also affected stocks like LRCX - LRCX was even for the day at 3:15 and ended up down 1.
I wonder though about an increase in earnings forecast without an upgrade in ratings. If an upgrade was to come later, wouldn't it be in the interest of MMs like Mont/MS to push price lower and load up at depressed levels?
An analysis of the daily charts shows that to accomplish this, no big effort was needed. CYMI went down in the morning on small volume in line with SOX; then SOX rebounded sharply, CYMI though stayed down.
Since morning trading was thin, a small sell program could do the trick. After that, SOX was basically in a decline pattern all day, and daytraders took care of the trend.
All this is probably too convoluted to be true, but I think that we'll see some upgrade from MS/MONT soon. Anyway, I was lucky to sell my LRCX before the drop and used the funds to buy CYMI at 15.25 A more gutsy move would be to buy a bunch of Feb 12.5/15 calls.
Regards,
Y. |
