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Biotech / Medical : Neurex Corporation
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To: NeuroInvestment who wrote (395)1/15/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Dr. John M. de Castro  Read Replies (1) of 449
 
I think you're being overly optimistic here. This is the same tune that I sang with DEPO.

> If there was such a high dropout rate that one might run into treatable vs evaluable sample power issues,

The issue is to some extent power. However, if you treat dropouts as non-responders, then you greatly dillute you 40% improvement in your evaluable group. This effects both power and effect size. DEPO ran into trouble because of the impact of including drop-outs on the effect size.

> Neurex and the FDA have been on the same page throughout this process

This was also true with DEPO. The problem was the ODAC was on a different page. There is no assurance here that FDA agreements with NXCO will mean anything to ODAC. They sure didn't with DEPO.

> 2) If you want something genuine to worry about, look for the release of the neuropathic pain Phase II data from the Neurobiological Technologies memantine trial, due out late Jan/early Feb. While I expect memantine to have less magnitude of effect, it is given orally and thus is a lot cheaper and easier to utilize. If successful, NTI would push a Phase III partnership ASAP, since they are near bankrupt.It could be a competitor for the mild-moderate range of neuropathic pain patients.

Now here I agree with you. NTII is in a great position because they are addressing the really huge neuropathic pain market. NXCO is only addressing a relatively small niche market. The reason to suspect that memantine will be less potent is because it is a noncompetitive NMDA antagonist. This is actually good. It maybe slightly less potent. But, it has a proven record of safety with humans for over 15 years.

I own NTIIC stock and do not own NXCO. So take my self serving comments for what they are worth.

John de C
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