So, guys, I largely agree with your takes. I was posting a bear case that I think is overstated. It's not a fail, as he says, it's just too early. Nevertheless, the market seems to be reacting as he did. Did the market really expect sustained anabolic response after end of treatment? Even I didn't, before Rick responded. So, like Rick, I've been buying into that weakness, having sold a second tranche of puts this morning. Though I'll agree with the bearish guy that we could have been given more data than we were (i.e. baseline characteristics, gender, actual lipid and triglyceride data, etc.), and that may suggest to Mr. Market the company is hiding bad news, hence the renewed pummeling.
However, as far as I know, for approval, 5211 would need an actual fracture endpoint. We have no human data wrt to bone effects, right? No BMD measurements? So all we currently have is preclinical data, namely this:
VK5211 Preclinical Data
Is that plus the human data so far enough for a partner? Or would a prospective partner also like to see human bone data? In which case, Viking had better design the next trial accordingly, and it would be nice if they start talking to investors about the anticipated trial design, and soon.
Cheers, Tuck |
