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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Shakush who wrote (12699)	1/15/1998 9:30:00 PM
From: Douglas E	Read Replies (1) of 25960

Nice analysis. I completely agree that todays activity had nothing to do with January expirations. Only 313 open interest on the 15 call and about half that on the put? Meaningless numbers compared to 1.1 million shares trading today. No, someone decided to unload a lot of stock in the last hour of trading, in fact I think about half of todays volume was done in the last hour and this is when cymer fell the most today. If I could hazard a guess I would look at stocks like PWAV who was clocked for 31/2 points today to 10 and change. They derive about 76% of revenues from Korea and said there revenues may be in trouble even though they beat expectations by 2 cents (29 vs 27) this quarter. Both companies(cymer and Powerwave) are one product companies who sell a lot to Asia and are similarly priced and both have had a good last quarter, and both have fallen precipitously from there highs. A nervous fund manager could easily see what happened there and it isnt a big reach to imagine someone dumping a sh**load of shares just to be safe. If cymer says anything like PWAV did on thier earnings day we can expect the same treatment. No, this was just good old fashioned fear, not inside knowledge, not options, but fear. The whole crux here is who is right the bulls or the bears about future prospects...but one advantage that Cymer may have is that even if orders soften in a quarter or two ultimately the semi industry is going to .18 so there will be demand for there equipment sometime. Just to show how unreasonable this fear can be for example the Korea fund (kf) was down today to 7 3/8 after the kopsi was up 6.5% last nite and is still similarly priced to what it was a month ago even though the kopsi (korean market) has advanced in 11 of the past 12 sessions from about 350 to 505 and is even up again today as I wrie this! There is a lot of bearish sentiment about Asia and PWAV did us no favors today. Any small stock in a risky (one product) niche can expect things like this. Especially if the need for the product is not absolutely clear.

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