What is the likelihood of a successful confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh?
Edgar Towers, studied at Emergency Medicine
Last week I would have said 95%. As of today I think it’s more like 5%. Long explanation but I think you will find it interesting, so bear with me.
Kavanaugh made a mistake by insisting on his absolute innocence and trying to make himself a victim.
It seems that Republicans knew of at least some of the past allegations and were preparing for it. That is why they kept insisting that no one should be judged by what they did in high school. I am pretty sure this is what Mitch McConnell meant when he warned President Trump against choosing him because of his “extensive paper trail” and his insistence on pushing through the confirmation so quickly. He wanted to avoid these skeletons coming out of the closet before Kavanaugh was safely in his Supreme Court seat.
If Kavanaugh could have just said that while he was sure he didn’t do it he was also no angel in high school and regretted many things he did, but has grown to be a responsible man who has so much good still to give society. If he had hurt anyone in the past he is sincerely sorry and feels their pain. This non denial- denial would probably have been enough to get him through quickly.
When Kavanaugh decided to deny everything and instead present himself as the victim their plans blew up in their face. It only served to unnecessarily create a “he said, she said” situation that had to be investigated. It also led to a sympathetic accuser in the person of Dr Ford publicly accusing him.
His attempt to appear as a choir boy on Fox News also didn’t do him any favors. It opened him up to the possibility of people who knew how he really was to call him out on his bullshit, which is exactly what happened. The situation has quickly snowballed out of their control with Republicans loosing control of the narrative, and Kavanaugh the Supreme Court seat.
After the country saw and heard a quiet, soft spoken and sympathetic Dr Ford tell what was arguably a believable tale things did not look good for him. Kavanaugh chose to come out with guns blazing, angry and belligerent as part of a strange strategy. He was purposefully evasive and even outright disrespectful when questioned. I don’t know about you but my head was spinning. I looked at my wife and said “is this really the same man who presented himself on Fox News, what is he doing?”. It was like watching Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde.
His calculation was to fire up the base and Republican senators with his angry, hyper partisan rants. It would have worked if the vote was taken immediately the following day, but it wasn’t. After the raw emotions of partisanship wore off and people began to analyze the situation more thoroughly it didn’t look good at all for Kavanaugh.
As it stands now I don’t think Kavanaugh will be appointed a Supreme Court Judge and his career is probably ruined and it’s too bad. Although I don’t agree with the man on almost anything I don’t wish to destroy the man’s life. But that is where I think it is headed and the fault lies on Kavanaugh himself.
All he had to do was play out the situation that Mitch McConnell had carefully laid out for him and he would have been a Supreme Court justice today. But he decided to go his own route and emulate Donald Trump’s “deny everything and create your own reality” route and failed miserably. Only Donald Trump has the talent to pull that off.
Speaking of Donald Trump, we all know that he does things always thinking of what in his own best interests. Kavanaugh knee this and made sure to publicly say that he believed you cannot press charges against a sitting president for actions done while in office (*cough* Bill Clinton *cough*). This of course caught Trump’s attention and made him want Kavanaugh in the Supreme Court no matter what.
After this week that might no longer be the case. After his hyper partisan rant last week he forever contaminated any judicial decision with the suspicion of political bias. There would probably be tremendous pressure to recuse himself from any case involving Democrats, political questions or the Trump administration in order to preserve the legitimacy of the supreme (or appellate) court. This now makes him useless to Trump. And in Trump world there is nothing worse than being useless to Trump.
So look for him to decide to “voluntarily” withdraw his nomination “for the sake of his family” or if he decides to fight on to the bitter end to fail to get the necessary votes.
If you think that Jeff Flake’s decisión to insist on an FBI investigation was a spur of the moment decision brought on after he was yelled at by two women on an elevator think again, this is planned. Flake, who has said on numerous occasions that he was voting to confirm Kavanaugh, is retiring so he no longer has anything to loose so he was chosen as the one to pull the rug from under Kavanaugh. With the coming midterm elections and the possibility of Democrats winning the senate they are running against the clock to nominate a replacement to the Supreme Court and are desperate to get rid of Kavanaugh.
Wasn’t it weird how Trump agreed so easily to allow an “limited” FBI investigation only to then strangely allow them to investigate any lead? This is so unlike Trump, but in hindsight it is not. It has already been decided that Kavanaugh must go. If Kavanaugh hasn’t seen the writing on the wall, he will soon.
Also notice how Flake also mentioned that if it is found that Kavanaugh lied under oath it would be disqualifying? That is bull crap, they all know he has lied on multiple occasions while under oath, including during hearings to confirm him to the appellate court. They knew before and they didn’t care, yet they chose via Flake to mention that at this specific moment. And to say that and the word “disqualifying” in the same sentence was done on purpose. If that wasn’t an indirect threat meant for Kavanaugh then I don’t know what is. If he doesn’t voluntarily withdraw his career is destroyed. Ouch! |
