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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

SPY 681.92

-0.7%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: Clam digger who wrote (112343)	10/11/2018 6:51:20 PM
From: robert b furman	7 Recommendations Recommended By Clam digger codfish23 GROUND ZERO™ mark2market Mevis and 2 more members Read Replies (2) of 220991

Not counting today, 3 day clx closed out yesterday at -8.3. Historically reversals come when 3 day clx hit -10 to -11. After a crappy day like today again we have to be there close. After tomorrow all of the 10 day offsets, are negative except the next 3 days. So by next week tuesday the 10 day clx would be 100% negative numbers if this decline continued three more days. Tomorow the offset that drops off is -1 then friday+9, +12,+7. So if by tuesday this decline continues we'll have 10 days of negative clx in a row. That happened during the June 13th to June 27 (11 days of negative clx) I have to go back to Dec 30th 2015 to january 13 for a strung of 10 straight negatives. Now today is the 6th day of negatives. Point being the offsets are getting to the point where you have 6 negative numbers in a row that are negative. As they drop off clx likelihood of going up gets better and better. Going back to: 2015 the worst 3 day clx#'s was on March 8th -19 July 27th at -19 and -29 on 8/25, nov 16th -13.3 2016 the worst 3 day clx #'s were Dec 30 2016 at - 13.7 As of yesterday we hit -8.3 on the 3 day. If todays number gives us a number like yesterday were at about -15 ish so it is ugly historically on the 3 day. On a 10 day we've been negative for 6 days straight there are 28 positive points that will drop off within the offsets (3 days with an average of 9 plus points per day)- the rest are all negative . Not counting today,once the last 3 positive days drop off we average - 40 amongst the last 5 days or -8 points a day. So averaging -8 points so far and dropping off a positive 9 each day for the next 3 days after friday, we go negative evry quickly. The ten day as of yesterday was only -1.6 but we'll go quickly negative after tomorrow. I'D HAVE TO THINK THEY'LL GIVE US 3 DAYS OF FEAR OVER THE WEEKEND The low 10 day clx is over -10 and -12 has been seen once in my records. lOOKS LIKE WE'LL GET THERE NEXT WEEK FAST. Starting tomorrow the 30 days starts dropping of negative numbers for 4 days in a row , one of the next days is a zero and the other is a 1. So 30 day gets supportive tomorrow and the 10 day hits a high negative to the point it should reverse early next week. Let's face it it has been ugly and earnings are starting tomorrow with JPMorgan - should be good with the rate increases We're due a bounce, and next week is expiration so it is hard to be clear about direction - one day good the next day ugly. By the 19th plus the weekend we're 16 days from the election. I suspect a pent up market with huge churn too much political uncertainty. I think it is prudent to expect no big rally till we see the republicans keep the house and if Trump picks up a senator or two - that's a plus for business. If Dems win - its big doo doo time IMHO. For sure we'll have huge uncertainty regarding impeachment blah blah blah. So the offsets are coming to be supportive. The declines have been huge - yet the trin has not been big at all suggests, more scare needed. Fear gage got to single digits now for 2 days. One has to think when the both the ten and 30 align -this is very good support. One thing for sure we've had an ugly WWW and a day after. The 30 clx is still positive and has not dropped below zero it is at +1.6 down from last weeks mid 3's. Aydis just went back into the buy zone yesterday(-1.7) the lowest it ever got was - 18.67 in March of 2015. The clx 10 day is only -1.6 a reversal can be expected if it goes below -10 and can go to -12. Dons words " When the 30 day falls below the zero line and the ten day tops out,then a pull back of significance may occur, till then resist your bearish urges. So we are just one day after WWW. Aydis is barely negative and not near where it reverses from 30 clx is positive and it has not dropped below the zero line The spread between the 3 day averages of clx and clx-pp are at -1.6 turns usually require a spread greater than 3.0 points and then you look at the offsets for them to run out. This is a hodge podge of notes accumulated over years. I'm sure not a guru - but I think Don is and I've tried to study his stuff over at Crystal Ball. The Wolanchuk hot line is a great source as well I think it is late to sell and ugly to hold. Don would say resist the fear that the negative price action is creating I'm guessing. Earnings in honest for the quarter next week and some banks tomorrow. Heck they just want your stock cheap - earnings are excellent in the US and money flows are coming to us vs emerging markets. Hold with Confidence - Gulp. See how easy this money is? What a game eh? Don takes the long view - he looks at charts like he does monthly charts. Let your investments play out. If speculation has you over extended sell a bit till comfortable. One thing for sure if you have a stock that has really climbed - its getting clipped so far. I hope that helps. Do your own diligence and I'm not a guru or a registered financial consultant. Bob

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