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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 246.84

+4.2%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Mike M2 who wrote (26582)	1/16/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) of 53903

mike, you and earlie are rightre right and david is wrong. i went through the math in a post just prior to this one. mu's net cost is around $0.09 below their asp. that makes $4.81 their net cost if their asp was $4.90. i'd assume 10% a q cost reductions per chip per q for mu. i think it is generous, but then i've always been generous with mu by overestimating eps and the like. my concern is that it will take some sort of "EVENT!" to knock the complacency investors have regarding mu. you think this q will be horrible? it is expected to be horrible and it still trades near the mid $30s. nobody cares. i expect muei to contribute to eps this q - maybe a nickel or a dime. mu's semi business is in the hole, though. they will have an extra $30 million in depreciation and amortization per q going forward. that is nearly $0.15 per share to cover. in addition, they'll need to write down inventory. as they spend their $500 mil they will need to pay 7% interest on it. in addition, they'll have to pay the $500 mil back. where oh where does the money come from? anyway, nobody cares now. maybe when mu posts a loss this q then people will care, but you never know. good luck.

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