Re-Posted from Motley Fool:
Subject: Re: Throw in the towel
Date: Thu, Jan 15, 1998 02:01 EST
From: KL Hot Dog
Message-id: <19980115070100.CAA20756@ladder01.news.aol.com>
MSadow9024, you wrote:
<<I think it's finally time to throw in the towel on this piece of crap. $1M in revenues for Q4? That's pathetic. I've been in this thing 1.5 years, and I'll take my $1 from the January effect and run. This stock is not going anywhere until they start showing sequential revenue gains. I think the market will be skeptical of OEM announcements--Ancor screwed up the Sequent account and the market for Fibre channel (despite all of the promise)
keeps
moving out in time. There are a lot of better prospects out there.....>>
Certainly there has been alot of disappointing and interesting competitive news to digest :
1. On Oct 30, Ancor reports both record quarter but warns of a lower Q4. In the conference call, Mgmt acknowledges likelihood/need to raise additional capital, based on forecast of second half '98 sales ramp. CEO states OEM's will not ramp until second half 1998. Kinnard 1998 estimates reflect an OEM sales ramp beginning in Q3 '98.
2.Insider buying by CEO and CFO reported in early December. CEO buys 20,000 shares and CFO buys 2,000 shares at ave cost between $5.75-6.00.
3. Q4 ( Oct - Dec 1997 ) revenue estimate revised down to $1.0 million by Kinnard based on Mgmt guidance in late December ( revenue shortfall posted on Silicon Investor in late December via someone posting Kinnard morning notes on First Call ). The reason given to Kinnard was govt contract delay.
4. Industry rumor that Brocade's next announcement will be an agreement with Storage Technology ( STK )..
5. Brocade raised $10 million from blue chip list of VC's ( I wonder what the dilution was to the old shareholders? ) and is now being courted by a who's who in Investment Banker land.
Brocade made presentation last week at Morgan Stanley Technology conference in Phoenix.
MS has an impressive list of IPO's on their tombstones, eg, Netscape, Xylan, Rambus..
My question is that if you reviewed all the negatives out in the public domain and have logically and emotionally written the Company off , why did you not make a rational financial decision and sell in Dec 1997 when you could have benefited from the tax write-off??? What difference does it make if ANCR did $1.0 , $2.0 or $2.5 million in Q4? The Company gave the initial warning way back on Oct 30. Any quarterly topline below $5-6 million loses money
anyways and revenues are likely to be only $2-3 million for Q1 and Q2. I'm surprised that all the skeptical, frustrated and battered longs haven't already capitulated and thrown in the towel in 1997 and take the tax loss.
If you think the Company is a piece of c___, by all means short it now before the lousy Q4 numbers come out in Feb, the expected dilution of the financing, the auditor slapping another "going concern" statement on, Brocade announcing more contracts , the shareholder lawsuit, Ancor being de-listed to BB status, etc, etc...Don't forget that there are a number of OEM's up for grabs and Brocade could win 100% of them. Also, don't forget about Ancor's
exposure to the Asian contagian and that some analysts are forecasting a huge shift in 1998/99 technology spending away from datacomm hardware to fixing the Yr 2000 problem.
Why wait for the upcoming bad news and take even more risk? MSadow9024, I suggest you take your own advice and sell now before it's too late. After all, you can still lose $5 from here. |
