Some thoughts & cogitations...
It looks like there was a little institutional selling today, especially at the close.
As I promised after the sell-off in Q1 1997, I would notify the thread if I saw the TA becoming negative...The TA leading indicators (yes, the oscillators, mostly) are broadly negative right now.
The short term (the next week or two) looks bearish...I see support at $17.50 in a week or two, or $16.625 during the next several days.
I don't necessarily expect THQI to correct to that point (about 30%), but I do think it's a possibility...Of course, I'd be happy to buy back the stock (that I sold at the end of 1997) in the $16's.
I still expect the stock to be over $30 in the next 2 months.
The 12-month price target of $24 by Gerard Klauer doesn't help the situation.
For those short-term traders on the thread, now may be a good time to sell, especially since THQI confirmed a sell signal by closing under its 50-day MA (lagging indicator!) for the second time in a week, while failing to break resistance at the 25-day MA...A short-term downtrend may have just been confirmed by today's sell-off.
If THQI is in the $16-17 range when earnings are released (doubtful), the stock will be suddenly trading at a valuation similar to its level in May, when the stock was below $9.
WCW Nitro and Quest 64 will be the best selling THQ games of 1998.
I'm not selling any now, because I ain't no mo-mo.
Let's give ol' Straggler her few dollars of glory, so that she becomes arrogant enough to double up her short position at $17....But, unless I'm mistaken, she's only just broken even.
Sum-sum:
The short-term TA may be lousy, but the short-term FA, long-term FA and the long-term TA are excellent...If you're a short-termer, you'd better decide what to do...If you're a long-termer, like me, you're best to hold on for a ride with much more upside!
Todd |
