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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners
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To: David R. Evans who wrote (7796)1/16/1998 4:23:00 AM
From: shasta23  Read Replies (2) of 12039
 
HI DAVE!

Thanks for all the good work for all of us. After your post i'm looking more into systemtesting and start to see some points in the whole process i never realized: e.g. open drawdown and when i see that 35% drawdown i know i could never trade according to this tested method even if it statistically would work out.
But i actually wanted to talk about a small observation i made with IBM.I followed the post you wrote to Terry and started to look the first time into these longer term indicators like DAHL and MACD(13,34,89) and actually liked what i saw there. I had disregarded them before and looked more at shorter term indicator. So that was intersting. I was surprised how small the open drawdown was for MACD(13,34,89)...less $1000...i liked that.
Quiet a few of the classical systems(DAHL, MACD(13,34,89), Stochrsi(14)...) worked well with IBM creating returns in the 110-130% region over a timeperiod since 1992. But i noticed that IBM was most of the time in a bullrun with some ups and downs. I then went ahead and loaded only the last 6 month in which IBM is in a trading range between 95 and 115. For some longer term indicators that wasn't enough time but it sure demonstrated that most system were not able to make a positive return during this time period. It showed me the importance of a clear trend to provide good results.
But i also think that if you traded without indicators e.g.bounce play from the $95 support you could have still make some money.Another possibility during this time period could've been to trade crossovers of MA's like 5EMA and 9EMA.

This is more an observation than a question. Only question remains...any comments?

Stefan
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