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Technology Stocks : KVH Industries, Inc.
KVHI 5.520-2.1%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: nissan who wrote (7032)10/31/2018 9:28:38 AM
From: awecr2  Read Replies (1) of 7249
 
SatCom revenues are tracking slightly behind where I was modeling. They need to do something regarding the content offering. In particular, entertainment. We have discussed this before. It’s the last remaining obstacle to dramatically accelerating SatCom revenues. Right now we are seeing a dollar for dollar shift from content to airtime. This is to be expected slightly but it seems more pronounced then one would expect after introducing new training software. This signifies an accelerating decrease in entertainment at the same time airtime accelerates. I was thinking the accelerating VSAT units would have an incremental positive impact on content even if we saw the natural decrease in content relative to the shift to the CaaS model. It’s not happening and signifies the entertainment demand is not there. And now the V3-HTS suggests it’s not compatible with ip-mobilecast. Hopefully this means a whole new entertainment option is coming. Otherwise, the entertainment portion will accelerate its downward spiral as V3-HTS becomes the most popular selling product. I think V3-HTS is going to be incredibly successful. This is the product I envisioned would finally make significant inroads into the 40k outstanding fleet Broadband dishes. I was thinking we were going to have to wait another year because I thought it was more likely a V11-HTS was going to be introduced, based on the fact they have suggested C-band is still important. I’m very happy about this new product but the excitement is somewhat offset by the uncertainty around entertainment.

I’m interested to hear how Commercial FOG performed relative to the positive impact from the earlier military contract. That contract skews the FOG numbers in a positive way. Even though we don’t have the photonic chip based FOG yet, commercial FOG sales should be increasing as more autonomous projects come online. That’s if KVH FOGs are getting traction in these early stages.

It would also be nice to see at least a small contract that is A-PNT related. AMPV will impact sales 500k to 1m per quarter next year. A negligible impact.

We are going to continue to see impressive unit volume numbers for at least another year. V3-HTS will get us above 500 units on a consistent basis. Even in the face of Trade related issues. This product translates to a paradigm shift to below 40cm, on most boats. That is pretty transformational when one considers the economics from a user and provider point of view. Big savings over the average 60cm install and ongoing service. The land market in RVs, Rigs and specialty vehicles is suddenly viable. The economics in the land category didn’t ever really make sense when considering the V3IP product. V3-HTS is different, imo. To see 1k units/quarter is not out of the realm of possibility, given the increased market opportunity. V3-HTS also implies a smaller 12” V1-HTS is possible with performance metrics close to the original V7 and V11. In that scenario, the total addressable market grows even more and service revenues accelerate further.

Aw
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