Let me correct you on a few points. I will not turn bullish on this cycle. If I turn bullish, you will have lost a lot of money and probably won't feel like buying more. When I came on this board, I said it would take 12 to 18 months for my scenario to unfold. That was about 15 months ago. Sunw got a little honeymoon last year because of HP and DEC ineptitude and Java hoopla. I expect that to change this year. I also expect Intel and Msft to be more competitive with their offerings in the second half of 98 and beyond.
I think the similarities to sgi and aapl are striking. In case you forgot, sgi was once a revered tech company, a real vestal virgn of technoland. In fact, the BEST time to sell SGI was when they were worshipped at the alter of the Harvard Business Review a few years ago. In that article, McCracken was fawned over like some managment God. He said he could maintain high gross margins indefinetly. Check the facts. Look it up. Read the article then look at a chart.
Instead of preaching to your choir, I suggest all of you look at what COULD go wrong, instead of back slapping each other over an earnings report. See, you guys are not even businesslike about Sunw. A real owner would want to know every possible negative bit of news. He would want to be AWARE. Instead, you guys shoot the messenger.
Go back in history and read about how Akers, Olsen, Sculley and McCracken were literally worshipped, by journalists, shareholders, and cheerleaders on bulletin boards. Then tell me this time it is different. |
