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Gold/Mining/Energy : NE, Noble Drilling

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To: username who wrote (152)1/16/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (1) of 301
 
Things have been pretty quiet around this thread -- unlike the market for drilling companies. NE stock has traded down with virtually all other drilling companies, which, IMHO, has increased its value relative to other players in the field. Today, Dain Rausher upped its 1998 estimates for Global Marine from $1.93 to $2.03. They based the upgrade on higher dayrates, continuing order backlogs and contract timing. All of those factors are present for NE only perhaps moreso. NE should show a particularly big jump in earnings for 4Q 1997 and 1Q 1998 due to the combination of high dayrates, new rigs coming on stream and old contracts being replaced by new ones at the higher rates. They also have their rig conversion project underway, that converts shallower drilling submersible rigs into deep drilling semisubmersibles. This will provide them with the most dramatic and cost-effective fleet upgrading to increased deep water drilling capacity in the industry. Not only does deepwater drilling command much higher dayrates, but it is also the most supply constrained drilling sector. It will also be the slowest to come into supply/demand balance because of the happy combination of extremely long lead times and high capital costs on new rig construction coupled with superior economics in deepwater drilling that should support continuing demand whether oil prices are weak or not.
NE and RIG have the best projected growth rates among the deep offshore drillers. But RIG continues to carry a significantly higher PE. The combination of higher long term growth and predictability plus lower relative PE makes NE a bargain among bargains.
Baird
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