<< As with the Koreans and others, I think they will have to
bite the bullet and invest at least enough to develop their
DUV processes and perhaps enough to develop major DUV-based operations.>>
I have a different view on this matter. The top 3 dram makers
in S. Korea are Samsung, Hyundai and LG Semicon. Together
they make over 30% of the world's dram supply. I read
an article (I'll try to find it) that said the best of
the lot had a debt equity ratio of over 200%, while the
worst one of the 3 was over 400%. I definately believe
their capital expenditures will slow down for two reasons:
1. For now the won is so low they can't afford the
capital equipment (priced in $)
2. The IMF and President Kim are getting serious about
reforming the chaebol -- no more fancy accounting to get
loans when you're already too deep in debt, no more
political power being used to get loans, opening up
the books, etc. etc.
However, Taiwan is making noise about picking up
the slack if S. Korea misses a step. But even if
that doesn't happen, I'm not too concerned about Cymer
because drams are only one semiconductor market,
you still have DSPs, CPU, Mixed signal, logic,
ASICS. DSPs are just on the cusp of getting into .25.
Texas Instruments, the leader in DSP, has already announced
its .18 DSP chip to be available in volume sometime in
1998. That means its competitors, Lucent and ADI,
etc. will be going down the same road or get left in the
dust.
Just my opinion, FWIW.
Regards,
Angela |
