These statements always make me laugh and reaffirm my belief that
some people don't understand market dynamics.
>A few weeks ago, DRAM prices bottomed in the range of $2.00 to $2.30.
>Now, they're in the range of$3.00 to $3.50, Nash said.
>That's in contrast to the market back in December 1995, when the >chips cost about $60, Nash said.
Was there a market for 16Mbit chips in Dec 95? Uh, no...
The main market was in 4Mb. 16Mb production was just starting the
ramp. Two words, SUPPLY and DEMAND (ok 3 words but who counts
conjunctions). Plus to blame the Koreans for dumping and driving
the price down is sidestepping the issue that when the Koreans and
Japanese started to curtail production Micron took advantage of
this and started to flood the market. Gaining a huge market share
AND plunging the price. Which in my mind is a good strategy IF you
can keep your production costs down (Micron is very good at this).
Don't think I'm a bear on Micron. I am very Bullish on this company.
I just think that the price plunge, once started, is very hard to
contain in a commodity market, unless the suppliers have formed a
consortium.
The 16Mb market will likely continue for some time, especially if the
sub $1000 PC market takes off. Those PCs will come with bare bone
memory, just enough to run Win95/98 and thats it. You will rarely
see 64Mb SDRAM in these Yugos.
Ok, I'm getting carried away. Haven't posted in a while. This BB
is getting too long and there is so much unrelated junk to sort
through. Hey Bipin, how about starting another BB topic called
"Micron ONLY" ;-)
Meg |
