(1) re <<price seems to be meaningless, other forces at work, as in correlations
no longer correlations, pricing is algorithims on WS at the least >>
(1-i) quite a number of money manager types closing long-time business / returning capital to investors; common refrains,
- "what i have known for xx years no longer working"
- "i may have lost it. nothing works"
- "for the first time in my life i am worried"
- "reinvention time"
- "hope is not a strategy. loss of hope does not lead to strategy"
(1-ii) bottom line, it is dark and darkening out there
(1-iii) folks still universally believe we are talking about 30-50% drawdown as opposed to 98% wipeout
(2) re <<... other forces at work, as in correlations>>
(2-i) the common take on this side of pond, by expats and locals, is that trump is an expression, and mandated to be trump-in-washington, and is doing as he implicitly promised, explicitly mandated, and is doing as he should, per promise and mandate
(2-ii) once trump is done, be it 2 or 6 years from now, may be followed by trump+ as politicians mine the well trump discovered, and trump shall revert to being a billionaire
(2-iii) for everyone else, live the consequences, but the consequences merely speeded up and triggered / given expression by trump, and really not created by trump
(2-iv) the central banks still have saves in dry-powder form, but the next round, should banks run into rocks again, may well be bail-in's and not -out's
(2-v) the economies face trade war rather than peace, and in war, all get hurt - not priced-in
(2-vi) the domestic politics of nations dictate that all proceed as are, full-speed and no-blinking
(2-vii) the geo-politics adds another layer of complications and takes on life of own, unpleasantly feeding back into (2-v) and (2-vi) above, such that (2-iv) central bankers can not forestall what the politicians gun for and only make events worse
(3) impressive setup we find ourselves, currently neither here nor there, watch & brief, waiting for something we can only imagine if we had the bandwidth besides watching & briefing, and perhaps never experienced
we are in for it, what ever the it, either the 30-50% drawdown or the unimaginable 98% should perfect storm hit.
2026 / 2032, or earlier and more compressed if we are lucky. we may get lucky, as usa, china and russia all ruled by strong men, and europe and japan appear strong-enough |
