How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 484.85

-0.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: johnd who wrote (4651)	1/16/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: X-Ray Man	Read Replies (2) of 74651

Well, if we are predicting, I'll have a go at it for fun and just to be contrarian. I think will will see the EPS you predict (.82-.85) undiluted. But I think that with the new requirement to report fully diluted EPS, some investors will be dismayed psychologically. I think there will be continual negative news on DOJ side for the rest of the year. I expect MSFT will announce a buy back of the size you suggest ONLY if stock is stuck below current levels. I don't see a split this year. I see the current runup as a prelude to earnings report, but suggest a fallback thereafter. I suspect the PE to settle closer to 40 trailing by the end of the year, so stock could end up near 160 by fall. I don't think anyone investing at these levels will see the stock double in the next two years, unless the company is broken into smaller parts. Well, I've been wrong before and right before, so I could be either this time. And I have no justification for my prediction. But I figure if I'm right this time, maybe someone will buy me a beer and give me a pat on the back, or maybe I can claim I am a great analyst and get alot of patsies to pay me money for my verbiage ;-) Good luck to all.

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