Henry, I've been pretty busy this week, so I haven't had a chance to respond to questions on this thread. I'll try to add more info next week based on my impressions from H&Q. However, in response to your question, LGND was only mentioned in passing at the wrap-up session. Rich van den Broek chose Gilead as his top pick. (BTW, Meg Malloy chose ERGO as one of her top three - so go figure.)
Without getting into specifics, I got the impression that many viewed LGND as fully valued at these prices given that its near-term market opportunities (KS & CTCL) are so small. With positive EPS projected in '99, investors within a quarter or so are going to start looking at projected '99 EPS, and stock values are going to reflect those EPS expectations. In the case of LGND, EPS numbers are small (especially if you net out from operating profit all the non-recurring milestone revenue).
It was my impression that the big revenues and earnings from expanded off-label cancer sales, diabetes, ostoporosis, oral EPO, etc... are being heavily discounted, and essentially not counted.
IMO, many investors aren't recognizing much potential beyond these small indications (KS and CTCL). I could be wrong, but that's the impression I got. |
