Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Thean who wrote (8548)	1/16/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Read Replies (2) of 95453

All:After looking at the charts,I'm not convinced we're not heading lower.In fact I think we are.May not be Tuesday but I think we will after this rally.Basing does not seem to be substantial enough and we bolted back up too quickly.Volume was not heavy enough on this move to substantiate a real reversal. OTH,if we move up another 15% without a return to lows I think we're out of the woods and the depths that we have been to will be gone.Man I hope that happens.I think all this will play out next week. What do we have going for us? 1-GLM's SCORE starts Monday(an educating of the media on the biz for 98)and from listening to GLM's ceo on their cc I think SCORE will really try to clarify things. 2-More earnings coming next week including big daddy SLB.Looks like earnings are scheduled all the way to the 2nd of Feb when my baby,EVI,reports.This span of time could and should be a positive for the sector but purely on a fundamental basis. 3-I'm seeing alot of analysts talk about this sector and the low valuations:note the upgrades today.We might even get more upgrades with earnings next week if #'s are good and cc's rock like GLM's. TA cannot take into acct all the external factors (earnings,upgrades etc...)so fundamentals might ride us out here but sooner or later it will come back to ta. As far as P Engr,I fear that cat.How many times has the guy been right?It's spooky.We've all seen it.My question is "Is the cat just guessing?"He's got a pretty darn good intuition if he is guessing but sooner or later the best guessers will get it wrong and probably wrong alot.Some form of analysis has to be applied:the gut feeling is not gonna work every time.He might be right for the next 6 months but he ain't gonna be right every time so that's what I have to say and I'll stop typing now...I was bored... GD

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