To all,
Cymer is a sizable portion of my portfolio, more than my own guide lines allow and I have been a booster of CYMI's potenial. My view was the curtian was about to go up on the excimer laser, with Cymer clearly dominating the play. Too many little items have crept into the act, Intel sucessfully using the Mircascan 2 at .25 micron with HG lamps on the pent2, stepper manufactures cutting back on estimates of steppers for '98, and new plants being delayed, read the last few days posts here and on AMAT threads. Not one of these items is too much of a problem, but all of them together it is another matter. After doing all the homework on a stock I know to do, I look to how does it feel, with everything I know how does it fit, CYMI felt good, right. Something is amiss here, friends it doesn't feel so good now, the recent weaknest in price is clearly a result of the conditions surrounding this stock, I fear the company is not going to be able to make a very positive forward looking forecast. My guess is forward sales will be modestly good, but not the 600 units we have come to expect as a min. The recent new weakness in CYMI's price points to others knowing something I don't, it may be '99 before this stock behaves like we were hoping it was going to in '98. I don't think I will get burnt on my holding, but I am keenly disappointed, as I thought CYMI would be a screamer. Some might not like agree with my view, but I thought I would share my thoughts. For the record am I in at an avg. of $24 a share.
Regards to all,
Ed |
