Satyr:
Thank you. I was flamed by someone on this thread who threatened to report me to the Webmistress for "telling white lies to help my short position." That same poster judged Mary's tech support tale to be irrelevant to the thread, so judge for yourself. Meanwhile, any bullish mention of CPQ by CNBC and Wall Street Week is repeated here with added fervor.
I gotta tell ya, CPQ looks... well, undecided. From a TA point of view, there are too many barriers to overcome before the downtrend is reversed. The trendline, 30-week MA, 50-day MA, and round-number resistance all converge around 60. The 200-day MA has provided excellent support, but I'm not sure it will hold another test. The real bearish factor is the OBV; new money isn't flowing into this stock as fast as existing money is flowing out. I really think that earnings will need to be way bigger than estimates to attract new buyers, and I can't help but wonder who's going to sell into any post-earnings-announcement rally. All the bullish press that CPQ has had over the past month hasn't moved the stock more than five points, and that's a reason for concern.
I was actually surprised by the sharp move up in December, and it was with sweaty palms that I shorted again at 60.50. I had a one-point stop-loss in effect, the tightest I've ever applied. I'm still a few points out of the money on my original short contract, but at least the worst I can do now is lose two points aggregate.
Y'know, I was thinking about this while walking the dog; it's a no-brainer to recommend CPQ to investors. It's like recommending Coca-Cola, AT&T, Ford, Procter & Gamble, or any other company that is big, traded on the NYSE, and sells consumer products. They're always going to be around, and eventually the stock price will appreciate. The one difference is that now it's computers, and that's always much more fun to talk about on the cocktail circuit.
I still think we're in for a nasty correction this quarter; there are a lot of nervous traders who sell first and ask questions later. If you have access to real-time S&P futures, watch the trend go hard-over red as soon as Clinton or Greenspan show up on CNBC to give a press conference.
Holy cow, did I write all that? Have a great long weekend!
RS |
