Jim RE-<<VLSI will face very few competitors if they can get the two chip set out soon.>>
I do not know who is actually shipping CDMA ASIC's at this point, other than Qualcomm, but it isn't clear to me that it is a bonanza. First, there are four possible competitors - Qualcomm, LSI, DSP, and I think Motorola (although I don't know if they have a license to sell the ASIC's separately from the base stations/hand sets.) Second, even if IS-95 is the up and comer, it is still small potatoes compared to GSM. On a percentage basis it may be growing faster, but on a total revenue basis it is still small, and it is likely to remain smaller than GSM for at least the next 3 or 4 years. Third, I am not actually counting any CDMA revenues before they hatch since Motorola has been having huge problems getting their chipsets to work, and they started long before VLSI, and they have more resources. Motorola always thinks the solution is just around the corner, but it is a hard problem.
So, while I think the CDMA thing is good, and I am hopeful, I am not expecting too much from this front (and neither is VLSI - they talked about it being important in '99, not '98, although if they are successful, it could add something substantial to the bottom line in '98).
Clark |
