David, $16.00 is only a guess. Albeit a hopeful one, these are some of my reasons. I don't want these to be taken as gospel as they are just my observations (hopefully good ones).
1. I have to disagree with you in regards to mutual funds NOT buying FTEL for their portfolios. Some funds are built around buying risk oriented stocks. Others (A LOT) have a portion of their portfolio allocated to risk stocks. Being on the NASDAQ will certainly help with the exposure the NASDAQ brings. I can assure you that valuation of a stock's price (although VERY important) is not the only criteria based on buying by fund managers. Many fund managers look for companies in their infancy that show promise. FTEL certainly has a promising future that falls within those specs.
2. Regarding FTEL's future, I believe it's the quality of the product that surpasses other comparative companies with similar products that sets us apart. I think this is one of many aces we hold. The biggest ace I will have to say is Frank himself. Whereas I used to be somewhat concerned with the timeliness of news coming out, I now see that Frank's timeliness is not mine, its better. His plan seems to be more strategic every time I read something. This is a man who has been in business since 1981 with experience as one of the top salesmen before that with IBM. He has forged VERY significant alliances and I don't think WCOM is the first. Let's not also forget that GTE seems to have an association with FTEL as well. Marketing this product in the right way at this time is a crucial step. Because of this EVIDENCE, I have confidence this is being done.
3. I've said this before and I'll say it again: "A great company doesn't always equal a great stock price" and conversely I might add a company that has no earnings can have a tremendous stock price. One that comes to mind that I have followed everyday is XCIT. We both can come up with an endless list of stocks to fit both statements. I have firmly believed that the most manipulative of all the moves the MM's made was to drive FTEL up to $10.50. There was no basis, no reason, no logic BUT to (among other reasons) shake out weak hands and they did. However, when I look at some of the other related companies in this field like Netspeak & VocalTech and where their prices are for what they have (which doesn't hold a candle to FTEL's products)I get VERY excited! Do you really think their prices are justified? So I will state it now. If we went up to $10.50 before, we'll do it again and go beyond. I'm counting on the price being hyped up past $10.50 (yes, hyped because there is nothing YET significant to justify past $10.50 but hopes and dreams)once the "NASDAQ Effect" kicks in. HOWEVER
4. We all know "hype" is not enough to prop up a stock's price forever. So, I am placing confidence in the placement of sales, the support of the product (for companies to expand), further improved technology, the investment of underwriters & institutions and a strategic marketing plan to deploy as much equipment as possible. These steps undertaken by a keen management team can only be a recipe for success. Then and only then will "hype" start to dissipate and shall we have solid footing. But NEVER underestimate future prospects for a company as not being a factor in it's stock price no matter it be Exxon or FTEL. They certainly are a factor and if those prospects be promising as in FTEL's case, then the price of its stock (although not forever) can be supportive of that. No TA in world can account for that.
5. Also, you state in regards to "getting bashed for predicting a 300% rise in one year." I became aware of and bought FTEL in Sept. 97. If I'm not mistaken, the price was somewhere near $1.50 in Aug. 97. As of today's close that is already over a 270% gain in less than 6 months!!
What I find interesting is this is even after tax sell-off time and (hopefully not speaking too soon) after the MM's have put this stock through the ringer. The biggest point to remember here is that A LOT of accumulation has taken place (to be left holding the bag - I think not!!)and somebody is holding millions of shares. OBVIOUSLY someone here (Raleigh - just kidding RB!!) is expecting to make A LOT of money from this hoard.
In closing I'll just say this. I am somewhat surprised by the naysayers and the pessimists who dart on and off of this board. Even they will have to admit that EVERY (AND I MEAN EVERY) business that has ever been started has been on a chance, a hope, and a dream. From the age of industrialization (Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, Carnegie, Morgan) to today's most modern technological companies (MSFT, INTC, AOL). Yes there have been more failures than successes. But I remember back in 1978 my broker trying to get me into Telephonos De Mexico for about under a $1.00. I believe it might have been that same year MCI was going for .78 a share. These companies also had no revenues that were worth counting, no profits, just a vision. I'm not trying to be sentimental here, but I look at FTEL right now who has more than a vision. They have a product, they have a plan, they have prospects and a brilliant management. THIS IS THE TIME to get in on the ground level and invest in a company like this!!! Not several years down the road when their stock has reflected earnings and profits and has gone through the roof. YES!!!!!! Its a chance. But for those who think ONLY earnings or TA of a stock price should justify buying it, then I very humbly say with the utmost sincerity, you shouldn't be in this stock.
No business is born as an adult first. It takes time. FTEL is already on its way!!!
Chris |
