Cary,
"I think your 20% downside risk is true for some, EGLS, LRCX, SVGI, UTEK, etc.,
but for others, AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, etc., the "favorites", the 96 bottom is another
50% down. That said, I am holding..."
I have noticed that stocks which have exhibited good long-term EPS growth
(which appears true at least for AMAT, KLAC, SVGI and UTEK) rarely return
to their previous cyclical troughs after completing a cycle.
For example:
Co. Trough Peak Next Trough
AMAT 9 30 12
KLAC 6 48 17
SVGI 6 49 15
UTEK 10 48 15
Therefore, in spite of tech guru Roger McNamee's polite pessimism which he
expressed toward the group a few hours ago on WSW, I would doubt that the '96
bottom is a realistic possibility. I guess that partially resolves the apparent
contradiction between your seemingly gloomy outlook and your steadfast refusal
to sell at current levels. ;-)
SC |
