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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: oldbeachlvr who wrote (82032)	12/18/2018 4:42:59 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) of 95531

The stock is climbing AH because Sanjay announced at the beginning of the CC that they plan to "meaningfully" reduce their capex in 2019. Bid-ask is 34.44-34.55, but jumping around quite a bit. They will announce details of the reduction later in the call, so I expect it to continue jumping around. Weakening DRAM demand throughout the quarter, reflects their customers bringing down their inventory levels as well as CPU shortages. Likely to persist through H1. Demand growth estimated to be 16% in H1, down from previous expectation of 20%. Micron will allow 15% growth in DRAM. In second quarter, bit shipment will decline sequentially, albeit higher YoY. In FYQ3, growth should resume. Whew! Now the AH bid-ask is down to 32.84-32.93 and still jumping around by a lot. NAND bit growth lowered to 35%, in line with sector growth. Also lowering capex growth. Will carry inventory to manage profitability. Will still have strong profitability and cash flow.

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