Barry; There is a thread about shorting broken down stocks;
I doubt there are many now on this one, but some time back
a yahoo "fool" release did talk about the shorts in both
VUPDA and MOOV. I have not downloaded last months data.
Just the same I'm sure there are some that made money on the
short side, and greed tempts them to hit her again. Maybe they
reason that even if they now lose, they are still going to
be ahead, it is hard for some people to turn lose and get out
of a game were they are ahead. Both shorts and momentum
buyers have a percentage of players that always hang on to
long. Their makeup is just about the same although they graze
on oppoisite sides of the fence.
I have a broker friend who won't buy untill after stock breaks
out and has gone up about 30%, then he refuses to belive it
will go back down untill it's lost 20% or more.
He did what he could to talk me out of AMD back in 96 when it
was $10.25, he bought when it got to $21, and would not sell
at $40 no he waited until it got back down to $30..but he
made money. Up untill then he had never thought of playing
"risky" tech stocks, as he was not a tecky..I use to work on
his computer, ( but the cheap sucker seemed to haggel about
what my service was worth ) so I quit, and left him to the
mercy of the many local computer service wolves.
Any way He called me several months ago all hyped up about ORCL,
I looked and told him it was to high..he bought anyway.
I have not heard from him since. All in all I did learn a lot
from him, and he's a nice guy ( but cheap ). There was one deal
he forgot to place a sell order I put in, I didn't catch it untill I called him and asked if it went through. I lost about $200 dollars
on his tardy action, he never offered to make it up, and I did
not see were taking him to task and causing hard feelings was worth $200 so I let it slide. We still talk but I don't
use him as a broker any longer. I did at times get him to open
up and it was very revealing. He works for a very reputal firm,
and I don't want to mention it or cause him problems.
I now know why most brokerage houses try to steer people to
mutual funds. ( they know most people can not pick stocks, in
fact they know they don't really do a hot job with their own
recomendations , but mostly because most people can not or will not
deversify enough ) He was up front telling me 85% of their
clinets who failed to use mutal funds actually lost money
playing the market.
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He considered himself an excetion but only because he was in
the office every day and had at his finger tips, an assest
that was above the type of information clinets could get in
a heart beat. All in all he does well, and I understand
he can't call every client every time he sees a tigger event
on the stocks he is in. I doubt he would even if time permitted
as most clients would not make desisions like he does..and he
knows that. I guees my $200 lost was worth the education he
gave me about the market in general, and how brokers work,
and how the house can short stocks at the top.
I've explainded that to people a lot of times but see that most
don't want to belive it. Market Makers on the NAZ also can sell
short and often do to other short sellers. They keep a running
tab on were shorts are positioned, and have a big advantage.
The indivdual shorter has to overcome odds he often does not
understand, even when he wins the Brokerage house or Market Maker
house has a built in spread that assures them a profit, and if
they don't get that spread they won't find the client any shares to
short.
I noticed VUPDA volume droped way way down, seems to say the MMs
don't have much inventory and indicates a "real" move
in VUPDAs value soon to show itself. They are not sure if
she is going up or down..the after market or secondary
market has dried up. Keep an eye on VUPDA, they will have to
tick her down some to get inventory the bid/ask spread will
likley widen untill they do. I'm convinced our play on MOOV is
tied more to VUPDAs price than most people belive.
Jim
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