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Now THIS is quite the conversation. A new anomaly to watch...and nobody, except David Mortimer III noticed.
David Mortimer III: Anomalous Howard Have you seen the 22 degree shift ?
David Mortimer III: I checked yesterday and it was the same. Anomalous Howard: Now THAT'S interesting. Has it been consistently at that angle recently? Are there other views between then and now that are different?
David Mortimer III: I asked Theodore to look at it and he could only say what was already clear that it had moved by 20 degrees, actually he said - at least 20 degrees.
Anomalous Howard: Do you have a link to the source of that graphic?
David Mortimer III: Yes, I will get it for you.. in the mean time..
Anomalous Howard: Well that's not good. Asymmetry almost never is.
David Mortimer III: What I did notice was that over the course of the NOAA movie's it sometimes jumped back and forth once over the duration of the movie.
David Mortimer III: Here it is, I just checked and of course it is still the same today: swpc.noaa.gov
David Mortimer III: 4 December at 12:07 · Earth's Magnetosphere has moved North 20 degrees. On Nov. 11 2018 it was reported that Earth rang like a bell when a seismic event sent shockwaves around the planet maintaining a low-frequency monotone as it spread, the origin of the event was off the cost of East Africa, near Madagascar What is strange is that Science.com and other sources had reported previously that "A Mysterious Anomaly Under Africa Is Radically Weakening Earth's Magnetic Field" https://www.sciencealert.com/something-mysterious-under-southern-africa-dramatically-weakening-earth-s-magnetic-field-south-atlantic-anomaly
In conclusion we therefore have a magnetic anomaly off the coast of Africa weakening Earth's Magnetic Field, we now also know it is in the same place as a point of origin for a global seismic wave that no one can provide an answer for and it "appears" from the information posted that Earths Magnetic Field has moved by 20 degrees..
Anomalous Howard: So far I've ruled out coronal hole magnetic connection anomalies. This could take a while.
David Mortimer III: It appeared to me there was a large magma movement under the Indian ocean that cause a dipole effect which resulted in the 20 degree shift. maybe that will save you some time, maybe not.
Anomalous Howard: I knew about the seismic wave event of Dec. 11 But hadn't come across the info on the mag field shift. That's quite a kicker.
Anomalous Howard: I don't usually miss stuff like that. (the magnetopause angle tilt) Thanks for the info. I'll be going deeper now. If I find something useful I'll be sure to let you know.
David Mortimer III: I would be grateful, did you read " It appeared to me there was a large maga movement under the Indian ocean that cause a dipole effect which resulted in the 20 degree shift. maybe that will save you some time, maybe not."
Anomalous Howard: I figured it was magma displacement/dome collapse event but was not aware of the magnetic shift. Which caused which is the question...or are they both due to a 3rd, as yet unknown factor?
David Mortimer III: Looking back at what I posted at that time: 6 December at 09:43 · Since may of 2018 magma flow under the Indian Ocean has caused a swarm of earthquake activity near the Island of Mayotte, the entire Island has moved South East by 5cm since then. There exists only three possibilities which can account for this movement, 1, an extremely large magma chamber drain to the South East of the Island or, 2, a very large increase in magma under the volcano to the North West of the Island or, 3, both.
On November 11 2018 a large magma movement caused the seismic event that caused the earth to - ring like a bell - the Island it self is a volcanic Island - one of four in the region - the last eruption was 4000 years or so ago. It appears to me - in the absence of any evidence to the contrary - that this large movement of magma caused earth's magnetic field to move north by approximately 23 degrees, the Earth's magnetic field changes over time because it is generated by a geodynamo (in Earth's case, the motion of molten iron alloys in its outer core).
I hold the opinion that the large magma movement had a dipole effect on Earth's outer core that resulted in the magnetic field movement. The magnetic filed previously tilted at an angle of about 10 degrees with respect to Earth's rotational axis,it does not appear that earths rotational axis has changed (yet) however it is self evident the magnetic field has. If I am wrong then at least I had a go which I have not seen anyone else do, either which way Earth's magnetic filed has moved substantially by approximately 2000 miles since November 11 2018, and no one is saying anything about it and I can provide no explanation for the that.
Anomalous Howard: Other data I'm aware of (preliminary so far) is that the north magnetic pole speed has very recently jumped a gear which is coincident with magnetosphere strength drop.
Anomalous Howard: This is from 2016 - the time of the most recent previous rapid jump in NMDP speed 1996. "The actual data shows the NMDP speed was 22.2 Km/yr ± 0.1 Km/yr in the years 1991 to 1995, inclusive. The geological activity was around 200 for the first 2 years then jumped to 361 and then to around 600 then 627 before the speed broke away in 1996 to 44.1 Km/yr. All of this type of activity would indicate some kind of a strong inertial or ‘frictional’ holding mechanism which prevented the magnetic pole from changing position until there was sufficient geothermal activity to overcome the holding mechanism and allow a speed change.
From a dynamo theory of the magnetic poles [6] we assume that the poles are set up following something similar to the Glatzmaier-Roberts model, which simulates convection and magnetic field generation in a fluid outer core surrounding a solid inner core. And in this case one of the driving forces would be the temperature and motion of the mantle. Geological activity would affect several factors in this model including the temperature of local areas of the mantle which would affect the conductivity of the material in these areas as well as the viscosity of the materials, both of which will have an effect on the resulting magnetic field.
One possible scenario is that the cooling effect of the release of heat from the mantle into the oceans would increase localized areas viscosity, which would tend to hold it in place, acting as a frictional force. But, its cooling would also cause its resistance to decrease, causing the regenerating fields in this area to grow stronger while other areas grow weaker. The increased electron flow would then increase the resulting motor action until a tipping point is reached. In this case when the cooling is causing the movement to be over 22 km/year the driving force of the motor action overcomes the drag from increased viscosity and the pole acts more in a linear manner. That is not to say this will be a universal condition under all circumstances, just that it is the way the present configuration is responding."
Anomalous Howard: 1996 is the time being studied in the paper, that was at the very bottom of solar cycle 22
Anomalous Howard: As a magnetic pole flip progresses, mutiple north and south poles begin to arise around the globe. I suspect we are seeing the first of those multiple poles appear. The South Atlantic anomaly and the corresponding anomaly in Indonesia may be precursors.
Anomalous Howard: That would tend to explain the magnetopause irregularity.
David Mortimer III: There is a relatively close proximity between the originating source area of the seismic wave on November 11 and the South Atlantic anomaly.
David Mortimer III: There is a big issue that I cannot resolve, although NOAA shows a 20 degree shift, that is not reflected in GPS systems nor have there been any reports from pilots. If as it appears there has been a shift, that would result in a 2000 mile change that is not reflected anywhere else..
Anomalous Howard Do you have any graphics showing the noon-midnight meridional plane perspective from prior to...say November? Sometime in Oct or Sept. perhaps?
David Mortimer III: just an example
Anomalous Howard: ok...thanks. Here's a decent animation of a pole flip...you'll see times when multiple poles appear.
Anomalous Howard: Is "vertical plane" equivalent of noon-midnight meridional plane?
David Mortimer III: That is my understanding yes. I wonder what the time frame on the video example you provided would be?
Anomalous Howard: The video info states that such a flip takes 40,000 yrs. But we know that's not always the case...or entirely true.
Anomalous Howard: Here's a view that NASA provides:
Anomalous Howard: No timeframe given but "during" certainly fits.
Anomalous Howard: So you say the GPS systems are not confirming anything...would GPS necessarily be affected? Also, wondering what effects it might or might not have on Ham radio signal propagation.
Anomalous Howard: I brought up this apparent anomaly to someone I discuss other solar/magnetic/geophysical things with: He'll be investigating I'm sure. His initial response so far: "hmm... not so sure, and have heard things, yet not many things. I have noticed a pretty serious orientation on the one side of the heliospheric current sheet."
David Mortimer III: The earth axis has not changed, nor satellites, so it would be a fair assumption that GPS would not be affected, so where else do you look for confirmation? Rather boringly a change in bird migration patterns?
David Mortimer III: Ah how about jet streams? But I have no idea how you would attribute a southward movement to it especially in consideration that jet stream wanders with a weakened magnetosphere anyway.. I can tell you that when you go looking for evidence do you need go any further than what we are looking at here ? swpc.noaa.gov
Anomalous Howard: The red-tailed hawk migration looked normal to me this year. There's a route past my house every year in early Nov. Not boring at all.
David Mortimer III I do not like speculation.. but "if" we were to speculate and assume the 20 degree tilt would result in a tilt in weather patterns, then that would mean the North Pole weather would mover 2000 miles south.. so just to through the kitchen sick in.. look at what is happening here,
Anomalous Howard: Ok...I have this: labelled "noon midnight meridional plane" "Slices of the magnetosphere in the Y = 0 (noon-midnight meridional) plane (left) during southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B z conditions and (right) during northward IMF B z. The dark circle is the inner boundary of the simulation domain (a sphere of 2.5R E ); black lines show magnetic field configuration. Contours show percent of the plasma that is the solar wind species."
Anomalous Howard: This shows its normal variability throughout the day during what is called an "event". .
Anomalous Howard: So there is some angle shift...but it doesn't persist.
David Mortimer III: Well, it does now
Anomalous Howard: Right...I should have said...it doesn't "normally" persist....the caption under the image showing 3 times during a single day says, "Y = 0 slices of the magnetosphere showing content and field lines (similar to Figure 2) from three separate epochs during the 4 August 2001 event." So apparently even an abnormal "event" shows variation in angle...and THAT doesn't even "normally" persist.
Anomalous Howard: Here's a view...most recent...from the opposite side.
David Mortimer III: My original analysis was that the large magma movement had a dipole effect on Earth's outer core that resulted in the magnetic field movement. Thoughts ?
Anomalous Howard: Well...there's the geomagnetic pole which is related to the Earth as a dipole. That's not the North Magnetic Dip Pole though. The dipole data averages magnetic field variations around the globe as a calculation that assumes a bar magnet at Earth's core and extends both ends outward to where they intersect the crust. So that is referred to as the geomagnetic pole.
Anomalous Howard: The "Dip Pole" is the point where you would stand on the Earth where a compass would point straight up if standing on the Magnetic North Dip Pole.
Anomalous Howard: The pole that is involved with a magnetic reversal is the Dip Pole.
Anomalous Howard: The North Geomagnetic Pole, at last check, is still in the arctic regions of Canada.
Anomalous Howard: This image shows both of them as of 2015...
David Mortimer IIIL The dipole tilt angle has a considerable effect on the formation of the asymmetrical structure of the field lines and the cylindrical tail current sheet in the magnetosphere.
Anomalous Howard: Right...I believe it is more associated with GPS and radio propagation than the Dip Pole is.
Anomalous Howard: The Dip Pole is used for compass bearings and airport runway designations
Anomalous Howard: The most recent airport runway changes I have seen is in the Pacific Northwest in Sept/Oct of 2018.
Anomalous Howard: You have to be careful in not confusing the geomagnetic pole and its nature with the dip pole and its different nature.
Anomalous Howard: If the variations in the overall magnetic field have changed significantly enough due to movement of the Dip Pole, the geomagnetic pole's position would also vary slightly more than usual. The seismic activity has a correlative affect on the speed of the dip ploes movement. So, the shift you see in the magnetopause is related to all of it.
Anomalous Howard: These are variations basically "averaged" out to calculate position of the geomagnetic pole. It could even work out so that a huge change in variations could very well not affect the location of the geomagnetic pole at all due to the averaging calculations. Just as the average of 2 & 4 is three but the average of 10 and -4 is three also.
David Mortimer III:
Anomalous Howard: That video assumes a dipole with straight symmetry and no variations. The Earth is not like that at all.
Anomalous Howard: So it comes down to what the Dip Pole is doing.
Anomalous Howard: geomagnetic north...the northern end of a hypothetical dipole magnet at earth's center takes all the variations on the earth's surface into account. Variations such as the south Atlantic magnetic anomaly.
Anomalous Howard: It then shows where all those averaged values would position the orientation of a dipole magnet at earth's center. And you can see that geomagnetic north is not at all close to the GEOGRAPHIC North Pole.
Anomalous Howard There are 3 referenced "poles" on each of the north and south hemisphere. 2 are magnetic. One of the magnetic poles is hypothetical based on overall magnetic field variations. The TRUE magnetic pole is the Dip Pole.
David Mortimer III: Yes, I understand that but what is the "added" effect of a large amount of magma movement ?
Anomalous Howard: The added affect is to cause the dip pole to jump to a new velocity.
David Mortimer III: causing earth to ring like a bell..
Anomalous Howard: So in that paper I showed you about seismicity and pole movement, it references TEMPERATURE changes as a result of the magma activity. Magnets are strongest where it is coldest. The shift in magma changed the earth's under-crust temperature variation profile to a point where the north magnetic dip pole is "chasing" the colder regions.
Anomalous Howard: And that magma shift was also, apparently, following a systemic "course' since the north magnetic pole continues in quite a straight line. It crossed the Prime Meridian well ahead of NASA's forecast.
Anomalous Howard: And if you notice ice growth in the Arctic, you can see that it's building more heavily to the East...toward Russia...which is the direction the North magnetic pole is heading.
Anomalous Howard: It's a system, so taking all the parts together, it appears that the magnetic pole flip has reached closer to a critical point.
David Mortimer III: We will see what happens after December when it is predicted to get colder, perhaps it will jump again!
David Mortimer III: I'll be keeping an eye on the NOAA website.
Anomalous Howard: Now that it seems to have made the next quantum jump in speed, it will remain at that speed for a while. However, this would be the 4th quantum jump it's made. And each jump has come with less intervening time than the previous. I don't have a clue how many "gear shifts" it will go through but 4th gear is going to be very fast. Since the time between gear shifts is getting shorter each time, I'll have to go throw some Fibonacci numbers at the previous intervals and see if I can figure it out.
Anomalous Howard: But first I have to wait for the data to make certain that 4th gear is what we just saw. It's looking more and more like it with the new anomaly you've discovered.
Anomalous Howard: Time for a break I think. It was an extreme pleasure...I'm sure we'll both be in touch...possibly on your fb page or mine. We now take you back to your regularly scheduled GSM.
