SF,
Sorry to barge in, but I wanted to address your consternation/concern
about "playing the game", and offer opinion/options to consider.
As small investors we are like "driftwood" caught in the tide, we
go where the current takes us and have limited "mobility" and even more limited vision of external influences that guide our course.
(Poetic, isn't it? hah) The point being, that we are in a "game"
against an opponent(s) (analysts, market makers, funds with
tremendous financial and highly paid professional resources) that
makes up the rules as the game is being played, and the rules
are dynamic and can change at any time. This gives the "big money"
the leverage and control to direct the course of the markets/stocks
and continue to "win".
Small investors have to make a conscious decision of whether to
"play with the house" or "play against the house" to maximize
the return on their investment in specific stocks/sectors. Playing
with the house means you take the advice/counsel of the analysts and
investment firms when they make recommendations, this will usually
work, but my feeling is that an investor can't maximize his potential
(or his losses), it is the safe way to procede for momentum investors.
Playing against the house can be a very volatile, but potentially more
rewarding "gamble". It takes savvy, instinct, cunning and guile (and
sometimes dumb luck) to procede along this course, and requires guts
to invest based on past and current information, while also projecting
future potential circumstances that may have a profound impact on
the direction a stock may take. It is very risky, but can be much
more financially rewarding, if played/strategized correctly.
An investor on another thread put it best by relating playing the
game to a reference to the Kobiashi Maru Scenario (from a Star Trek
episode) which is "The unsolvable question, the unescapable situation"
When faced with no chance of winning you just change the rules of the
game so they are in your favor. How can you lose if you are making
up the rules as you go along? Maintaining a dynamic approach to playing the game and being willing to change your strategy as
circumstances change is, IMHO, the only way to out manuever the
big guys by out thinking their motives/strategy. What this does is
give the small investor the foresight and control to guide himself
against the momentum of the current.
The individual small investor has resources (the internet,et al) and
other small investors doing research and helping support each other
and adding their experiences/expertise, all with the same motive
"to make money". There will always be differing opinions as
to what is the right "course of action" to take, but it lies with
each investor to filter thru the biased opinions and glean out the
useful information and act accordingly on it. Together we make a
pretty good team, we just have to consider ourselves as "guerrillas"
fighting a more formidable opponent, and use hit and run tactics to
win our small victories in the market. Ultimately, we will win, but
only after numerous pitched "battles" against a bigger, better
armed "foe" with superior resources. We will be bloodied, scarred,
and humbled, but inevitably we will hold our heads high and be
victorious!!!!
Just my opinion, good investing.
BB |
