2018 Fourth Quarter. Drops stocks 20% from September highs.
Stocks I own
5/8/08 NEE $57.43 to 54.39. to 51.99 to 55.93 to 57.46 to 52.04 to 60.88 to 61.08 to 68.81 to 70.33 to 69.19 to 77.68 to 81.48 to 80.41 to 85.62 to 98.02 to 98.33 to 106.23 to 98.03 to 97.55 to 103.89 to 118.71 to 122.32 to 119.64 to 128.93 to 140.58 to 146.55 to 151.71 to 162.75 to 168.56 to 167.60 to 173.82
7/7/09 VZ $29.80 to 32.59. to 35.85 to 38.50 to 37.23 to 36.80 to 40.23 to 38.23 to 44.44 to 45.57 to 43.27 to 49.15 to 50.34 to 46.79 to 49.14 to 49.71 to 49.99 to 46.26 to 46.61 to 43.51 to 46.22 to 54.01 to 51.98 to 53.38 to 46.88 to 44.66 to 49.49 to 52.48 to 47.48 to 50.70 to 53.39 to 56.22
1/4/10 XOM $68.87 to 73.12 to 84.68 to 81.38 to 72.63 to 84.76 to 86.73 to 85.57 to 91.45 to 86.55 to 90.11 to 90.35 to 86.08 to 101.20 to 102.59 to 94.04 to 92.45 to 83.20 to 74.37 to 77.95 to 82.96 to 87.28 to 90.26 to 82.76 to 80.73 to 81.98 to 86.75 to 74.87 to 82.24 to 85.02 to 68.19
07/14/10 FCX $31.57 to 60.04 to 55.08 to 52.90 to 30.54 to 36.79 to 38.04 to 34.07 to 39.58 to 34.20 to 33.10 to 27.62 to 33.51 to 37.74 to 38.51 to 32.65 to 23.36 to 18.62 to 9.69 to 6.77 to 9.89 to 10.86 to 13.69 to 13.37 to 12.01 to 14.04 to 19.09 to 17.33 to 17.07 to 13.92 to 10.31
02/23/11 NVDA $22.51 to 18.20 to 15.94 to 12.51 to 13.86 to 15.40 to 13.82 to 13.34 to 12.29 to 12.83 to 14.04 to 15.44 to 16.02 to 18.85 to 18.45 to 20.05 to 20.11 to 24.65 to 32.96 to 36.15 to 68.52 to 106.74 to 100.43 to 144.60 to 178.77 to 215.40 to 214.25 to 236.84 to 281.02 to 133.50
5/14/2012 JPM $35.92 to 35.73 to 40.48 to 43.97 to 47.63 to 52.79 to 50.79 to 58.48 to 57.04 to 60.24 to 62.48 to 67.32 to 60.97 to 66.93 to 59.87 to 66.59 to 86.29 to 86.18 to 91.40 to 95.41 to 108.34 to 109.09 to 103.61 to 112.84 to 97.62
7/28/2015 PYPL 36.39 to 31.04 to 36.21 to 39.40 to 40.79 to 39.47 to 43.04 to 53.67 to 64.03 to 78.70 to 73.86 to 83.27 to 87.84 to 84.09
1/5/2016 GOOGL 741.45 to 749.91 to 777.29 to 771.82 to 824.67 to 929.68 to 973.72 to 1102.23 to 1007 to 1102 to 1207.08 to 1044
1/5/2016 AMZN at 631.20 to 598.50 to 837.31 to 749.87 to 894.88 to 970.69 to 961.35 to 1229.14 to 1405 to 1693.96 to 2003.00 to 1051
1/7/2016 FB at 100.65 to 116.06 to 128.07 to 115.05 to 140.78 to 150.98 to 170.68 to 186.85 to 157.20 to 192.73 to 164.46 to 131.09
6/14/2018 AZN 36.83 to 34.76 to 39.57 to 37.98
9/4/2018 UA 19.33 to 19.46 to 16.17
9/17/2018 CRAY 22.90 to 21.50 to 21.59
9/27/2018 BA $371.13 to 371.90 to 322.50
1`0/2/2018 PEP 110.57 to 110.48
Sold – INTC, PF
Crude 44.60 to 45.93 to 44.76 to 51.46 to 50.88 to 66.02 to 79.36 to 84.56 to 75.26 to 81.25 to 91.38 to 108.31 to 94.93 to 79.20 to 99.20 to 102.90 to 83.86 to 82.19 to 91.68 to 97.13 to 96.49 to 103.72 to 98.70 to 104.06 to 90.02 to 53.88 to 58.49 to 46.10 to 37.07 to 35.98 to 48.63 to 53.87 to 52.29 to 43.26 to 51.64 to 61.59 to 62.16 to 74.14 to 73.56 to 45.81
Nat Gas 5.62 to 4.41 to 4.19 to 3.75 to 3.37 to 3.98 to 5.72 to 3.76 to 4.52 to 3.81 to 4.40 to 4.34 to 4.37 to 3.66 to 2.94 to 2.12 to 2.81 to 3.31 to 3.36 to 4.02 to 3.56 to 3.54 to 4.23 to 4.41 to 4.13 to 2.92 to 2.79 to 2.51 to 2.37 to 1.98 to 3.13 to 3.70 to 3.25 to 3.04 to 3.02 to 2.78 to 2.68 to 2.87 to 3.01 to 2.96
Gasoline 1.70 to 1.93 to 1.95 to 2.09 to 2.09 to 2.48 to 2.78 to 2.83 to 2.85 to 3.24 to 3.78 to 3.79 to 3.56 to 3.43 to 4.03 to 3.46 to 3.99 to 3.36 to 3.76 to 3.78 to 3.55 to 3.55 to 3.86 to 3.59 to 2.19 to 2.89 to 2.39 to 1.89 to 1.99 to 2.13 to 2.49 to 1.99 to 2.54 to 2.39 to 2.69 to 2.11 to 2.08 to 1.31
Gold 883 to 927 to 941 to 927 to 885 to 990 to 1095 to 1115 to 1243 to 1317 to 1421 to 1431 to 1502 to 1620 to 1564 to 1668 to 1592 to 1774 to 1674 to 1596 to 1234 to 1314 to 1198 to 1319 to 1319 to 1183 to 1171 to 1117 to 1079 to 1222 to 1318 to 1183 to 1256 to 1248 to 1282 to 1320 to 1336 to 1253 to 1196 to 1280
Silver 30.20 to 27.78 to 32.20 to 27.28 to 34.55 to 30.34 to 28.30 to 19.73 to 21.69 to 18.13 to 21.00 to 21.00 to 15.70 to 15.54 to 14.49 to 14.02 to 15.44 to 19.14 to 15.99 to 17.99 to 16.57 16.69 to 17.26 to 16.38 to 16.04 to 14.69 to 15.56
Copper 1.39 to 1.46 to 1.52 to 1.80 to 2.04 to 2.73 to 3.32 to 3.58 to 2.96 to 3.70 to 4.43 to 4.41 to 4.25 to 3.14 to 3.42 to 3.82 to 3.46 to 3.74 to 3.64 to 3.39 to 3.04 to 3.30 to 3.37 to 3.07 to 3.04 to 2.84 to 2.62 to 2.35 to 2.13 to 2.17 to 2.21 to 2.51 to 2.64 to 2.71 to 2.95 to 3.23 to 3.04 to 2.91 to 2.80 to 2.64
Corn 5.56 to 6.95 to 6.95 to 6.79 to 4.40 to 4.21 to 4.17 to 3.20 to 3.97 to 4.12 to 3.87 to 3.58 to 3.51 to 3.37 to 4.10 to 3.59 to 3.88 to 3.55 to 3.51 to 3.88 to 3.64 to 3.55 to 3.75
Euro/usd 1.05 to 1.05 to 1.14 to 1.18 to 1.20 to 122 to 116 to 116 to 1.14
USD/Yen 116.93 to 111 to 111 to 112 to 113 to 106 to 110 to 113 to 109
GBP/USB 1.22 to 1.23 to 1.30 to 1.33 to 1.36 to 1.40 to 1.323 to 1.30 to 1.27
USD/RUB 55 to 58 to 57 to 56.9 to 58 to 63 to 65 to 69
Bitcoin 4310 to 16,949 to 7042 to 6.666 to 6604 to 3717
Dow – 11577 to 12376 to 12414 to 10913 to 12217 to 13212 to 12880 to 13437 to 13104 to 14578 to 14909 to 15111 to 15576 to 17068 to 17042 to 17823 to 17663 to 16,238 to 17,425 to 17792 to 18308 to 19862 to 20,656 to 21,349 to 22405 to 25,295 to 23.932 to 24,174 to 24458 to 23,327
NASDAQ – 2652 to 2789 to 2773 to 2415 to 2605 to 3091 to 2935 to 3116 to 3019 to 3267 to 3403 to 3815 to 4176 to 4485 to 4493 to 4736 to 4425 to 4620 to 5007 to 4917 to 5312 to 5383 to 5877 to 6140 to 6495 to 7136 to 6915 to 7502 to 8046 to 6,635
S&P500 – 1257 to 1332 to 1320 to 1131 to 1257 to 1408 to 1362 to 1440 to 1426 to 1569 to 1606 to 1693 to 1848 to 1985 to 1972 to 2058 to 2069 to 1920 to 2093 to 2072 to 2168 to 2238 to 2355 to 2427 to 2519 to 2734 to 2604 to 2713 to 2913 to 2508
Unemployment 9.6% to 8.9% to 8.1% to 7.4% to 5.9% to 5.5% to 5.1% to 5.0% to 5.0% to 4.9% to 4.6% to 4.5% to 4.7% to 5.1% to 4.9% to 4.1% to 3.9% to 3.7%
1/1/2019 The Dow fell 5.6%. The S&P 500 was down 6.2% and the Nasdaq fell 4%. Crude collapses. Stocks drop 20% from the highs. The worst December since 1931, Ford and GM lay off thousands. 5% swing trades all show we are in the third month of the recession. We have 6-9 months to go so 2019 will be ugly. The dollar is stronger against all currencies. It looks like the Fed might only raise rates 2 times. Watching XOM and FCX, might sell those if the world economy slows down. Brexit is the news for March. Mueller report will be out next quarter. I expect 100 charges.
9/30/2018 More records set. I am increase exposure to the market as it runs up. The macro numbers are all excellent only concern is wage growth and earnings are great, The FED will control interest rates in December and 3 times in 2019. Everything is considered to be excellent. DOW 36,000 could be reached in the next 3 years.
7/4/2018 Russian sanctions pushing the ruble down vs. most currencies. Most tech that I own are still strong. Oil is strong and gold is weak. More tariff talks so many companies that depend on foreign sales are getting hit.
4/1/2018 Trade tariff war start with China. FB lets Cambridge look at many data. Fed raise interest rates. Chartists have been screaming that market due to a collapse. One day they will be right. The yen is strong. Japan is a buy for companies with cash. High debt companies are to be avoided. Not so bad to have a second skill like a trade when the market does go bad. I will start going less equities by September 1. Bitcoin has puked down 50%. The FAANG stocks remind me of the Nifty Fifty stocks of the late 60’s. They then collapsed wiping out most portfolios. The 1973-74 bear market made many investors painfully aware of the fact that they can be seriously hurt if they hold stocks while many other stockholders are selling in panic. The market never recovered until 1982. During that time, high dividend utilities and oil were only way to get ahead of inflation.
Weimar Germany held three rules to survive:
1 - that gold/silver is your hedge on inflation.
2 – owning your property is a hedge against crazy rent swings.
3 – Growing your own food helps when food prices get crazy.
1/6/2018 I had family over and missed the 1/1/2018 posting. The marker roared up in the last months. So did the bitcoin. All the tech stocks doubled in the portfolio. NVDA broke 200. 2018 should be a good one with double digit gains. I remember bitcoin at $50 and many people lost all of them when these exchanges were hacked. This means I will not play in the crypto currencies. The tax cut means a huge infusion in spending. This means labor markets already stretched, will be seeing wages. Unless there is a war or major disaster, it should be a great year. |
