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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: Ken Adams who wrote (18574)1/2/2019 12:39:26 PM
From: OldAIMGuy4 Recommendations

Recommended By
Condo
Ken Adams
Kirk ©
Zen Dollar Round

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Hi Ken, Re: histograms of market risk components...........

Relative Valuation combines st interest rates with P/E:


Speculation looks at winners vs losers on the stock market exchanges. Right now there's very little
speculation as investors have been selling everything and buying very little.


The Divergence Index looks at investor consensus opinion. Right now it appears all investors are shunning
the market with very few considering upside potential.


Finally, IPO activity was quite high late in the summer before the markets started to decline. It's been falling
off but is only back to its neutral range right now.


Three of the four Market Risk Indicator components are solidly bullish. This gives the overall risk measure a
bullish stance and lowest since early in 2016. At 6 months from the first bullish signal 86% of the time the
markets have been "up" more than their median amount since 1982. At 9 months 77% of the time the
markets are up more than the median amount. With this in mind, I'd expect the indexes to rise for the next 6
months or so.

I've been keeping this database since the early '80s. I find it instructive in filtering the 'noise' in the business
news to keep focused on the more important signals.

I didn't think about non-LinkedIn people. I don't know what they see if they click on the link.

Happy New Year,
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