Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 155.15

+2.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4469)	1/17/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: John Chalker	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Jay, I think that your bearish post of 1-16-98 deserves some balance so I will try. As I've said before, you are very gutsy to forecast earnings numbers a year in the future, IMHO industry dynamics change much too rapidly to allow that luxury. Let's talk AMD. Their debt is junk rated, and on credit watch-negative. They have serious yield problems on the .35 micron K6 and have announced a move to .25 micron K6, this is a desperate, "bet the company" move if I ever saw one. No engineer in his/her right mind would attempt that move. Bankruptcy is a real possibility for them in 1999, just look at the stock price. Re PC growth. If INTC says that they are okay with Dataquest's 17% growth estimate, then there is a genuine difference of opinion. If you expect lower ASPs due to the popularity of sub $1,000 PCs, then it's only logical to expect a high growth rate. As I've said before, IMHO the semi and equip stocks bottomed week of Dec 12th. And from a technical analysis point of view, the evidence is getting stronger. Always look on both sides of the fence. Chalks

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