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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends

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To: humble1 who wrote (30749)	1/9/2019 8:28:31 AM
From: Berk	Read Replies (1) of 41029

h1 Garbage or something really significant? I was a stock broker in 1974 having gotten licensed just in time to live through a market crash of 45% of it's value. My firm was dominated by fundamentalists who were entranced with what were called the Nifty Fifty growth stocks: Eastman Kodak, Proctor and Gamble, etc. In the preceding bull market these stocks had been bid up to extremes and subsequently decimated in the bear that followed to such an extent that no one believed whatever the investment policy committee had to say. However the smartest thing that they did do was to hire a market technician who analyzed the market, not a company's financial prospects. At the time market technicians were fairly rare and of questionable repute. Anyway this guy comes in the door just in time to call a big double bottom in the Dow Jones and the market takes off with a massive rally of tremendous breadth, much like we have just witnessed. His comments at the time were to buy, buy, buy. To forget the fact that it is over bought. That when you have a breadth thrust of this magnitude it leaves all traders in it's dust and they become sold out bulls. That the natural tendency is to sell the rally because that's what you were conditioned by the market to do in the preceding bear market. But you then wait and wait and wait to buy a decline to get back in that seems to take forever to come. When it does come, it's never enough because it's so brief. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that we might be seeing a scenario that won't be a duplicate but will rhyme. Incidentally Marty Zweig did a lot work in this area after I had left the brokerage business writing several books on market statistics en.wikipedia.org

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