I don't remember the macro backdrop in 2003, which was probably the best overall and individual contest performance in its history. You were there, maybe you do. I do remember that then, as today, we were coming off an extreme in negative sentiment. But the significant headwind today is the likely political unity regarding pricing, coupled with some lingering shutdown effects (I've read application processing at FDA gets genuinely affected if it lasts another week). I'm thinking these headwinds, if they prevail, were not entirely priced on 1/1/2019. As such, I'm predicting an average year for the contest.
The handful of picks that approach 500% returns get outweighed by incorrect allocation and other picks imploding, and this reality has consistently resulted in the winner's returns being in the 150% - 200% range, on average (guessing, haven't run the numbers).
For reference, the results of the 2003 contest. Not shown in that post, but in another one, was that the contest average was over 100%.
2003 Contest results
I've been told that in a proto-charity contest in the 90s, the winning result was even better, and that the winner was Miljenko. For inspiration, I'd love to see the details of that contest talked about by those that were there.
Cheers, Tuck |
