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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (13218)	1/18/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 18056

THC, I am not sure who they will sell the real estate to, but I see no problems with them selling next year something like $300 Billion in US treasuries. This year the US issued about $120 Billion less treasuries than it paid out in interest and that was well absorbed by selling from Japan and others. After a short blip up in interest rates early in the year (possibly to just above 6%) I see the rate going down to 5.5% by mid year due to a combination of dearth in treasuries, flight to quality and slight defaltion in the US (induced by SEA strong devaluations). While we may see defaltion (deflation induced defaults) in the rim, I do not think that defaltion will reach our shores. Zeev

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