Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: stockdoctor who wrote (14777)	1/18/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (4) of 70976

Stock MD, I forgot one thing in my previous post: your eps estimate for the qtr. If in fact AMAT can hit .55, and the outlook is other than end-of-the-world, this one is taking off! However, IMHO, I don't see AMAT hitting .55. I believe the consensus forecast is for .50, someone please correct me if I'm wrong. If AMAT is to indeed weather the current storm, they will need to spread out their current $1.7B backlog accross several qtrs. I don't think AMAT mgt. would go for the "quick kill" of a 5 cent beating of estimates when doing so would only increase their chance of missing estimates down the road since they have just used up a sizeable portion of their backlog that could have been next qtrs. eps. This being said, if AMAT does hit .55 or thereabout, this would be extremely bullish since mgt. doesn't view the current "crisis" as such and is willing to use their backlog believing more is on the way. In addition, this would be a record qtr., since the previous high in terms of eps was .505 (split-adjusted $1.01) regards, Brian

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