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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 48.32-1.1%Feb 11 3:59 PM EST
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IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL
To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (50662)1/14/2019 1:47:01 PM
From: tuck1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Less worried about June expiration not getting the job done. It occurred to me that if they expected to file during this half, that must mean the MACE data comes out beforehand. So the March/April range looks right for that readout. What I really want to know is if the DMD data comes before or after. I guess I am neutral so slightly optimistic about the DMD readout. I have reservations about the in vivo preclinical data because of I don't think the animal model used matches up well to the patient population. On the other hand, the in vitro clinical data makes sense, and the IPF may provide some read through to the endpoints of this DMD study. I expect the MACE data to be at least solid. They only reservation I have is that the reduced doses used in ESA therapy these days may make it equivalent in MACE outcomes, except to the extent that it means not hitting the Hb target and getting bad MACE outcomes from that. So I expect roxa to have some advantage, and because it's the last big risk for a drug that hits a big market, I expect a big move, a bigger move than the current implied volatilities are telling me. So to me the options actually look kind of cheap. Would love to hear others thoughts and positioning ideas regarding the upcoming news flow.

Full disclosure. I am long via a full core position of stock and also via a slug of sold June puts. I was actually looking to go even longer via calls.

Cheers, Tuck
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